Do the Saints get their limits again away?
Antonio Conte has not been sparing with criticism of his own club in recent days. The Italian coach took particular aim at the transfer periods of the past and gave those responsible a damning report card. At the same time, he put pressure on those in charge, calling on them to do a better and more focused job in the upcoming transfer windows.
The fact that Conte does not have to fear any consequences after these tough statements and is in a position to make such public statements after just over three months in office speaks for the fact that last year’s Inter coach has been able to convince in terms of results so far. Conte scored an average of just under two points in his first 17 competitive games. This very solid record is to be extended on Wednesday evening. Then it comes to the duel Tottenham against Southampton. According to the odds, everything points to the next three points for Spurs.
In terms of the table, this assessment is definitely understandable. After all, the seventh-placed team, which still has two games to play, is up against the twelfth-placed team, which has often not looked good away from home this season. And because the Saints have had nothing to show for their efforts in the north London borough of Haringey in recent years, the forecast for a commanding home win between Tottenham and Southampton is a reasonable one.
Tottenham – Statistics & current form
Tottenham are flying a little under the radar in the English Premier League these days. Although Spurs are currently only in seventh place in the standings, it should not be forgotten that the Londoners have only played 20 matches. In comparison, West Ham (5th), Chelsea (3rd) and Manchester United (4th), for example, have already played 22 to 24 league games. Should Tottenham score in the catch-up games, they could jump up to a Champions League place.
In general, the tenure of coach Antonio Conte can be described as extremely successful so far. The Italian has won ten of 17 competitive matches with Spurs. Three of the four defeats were in the League Cup and the Conference League respectively.
Tottenham are very strong at home
Tottenham have only lost once in the Premier League in ten attempts – most recently in a 2-0 defeat to Chelsea. At home, the Lilywhites are still unbeaten in the league under Conte. Also interesting: Conte himself has won 20 (!) of his past 21 home games as coach.
This is one of the reasons why we believe that a home win in the Tottenham vs. Southampton clash on Wednesday evening offers the most promising value. Spurs have won seven of their ten PL home games so far this season and have also won their five most recent encounters with the Saints at home. Furthermore, the anticipation for this encounter should be enormous. After all, it is the first home game in the league since Boxing Day.
In our eyes, it doesn’t even seem far-fetched that the expected Spurs victory will be by two or more goals. On the one hand, the capital club was already in a scoring mood in the FA Cup at the weekend against Brighton (3:1), which is actually so strong defensively, on the other hand, the Saints defence does not look particularly stable away from home. Another positive aspect is that Hyeung-Min Son, an important attacking player, is available again. Only Dier, Skipp and Tanganga are still out injured.
Predicted line-up of Tottenham:
Lloris; Romero, Sanchez, Davies; Emerson, Winks, Hojbjerg, Reguilon; Lucas, Kane, Son
Last matches played by Tottenham:
FA Cup
02/05 2022 – Tottenham 3 – 1 Brighton
Premier League
01/23 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 0 Tottenham
01/19 2022 – Leicester 2 – 3 Tottenham
Carabao Cup
01/12 2022 – Tottenham 0 – 1 Chelsea London
FA Cup
01/09 2022 – Tottenham 3 – 1 Morecambe
Southampton – Statistics & current form
Southampton Football Club currently find themselves in the grey midfield of the standings. The cushion on the relegation places is about as big as the gap to the international business. On the one hand, this intermediate ranking can lead to the Saints playing freely during the remainder of the season. On the other hand, however, a certain drop in tension cannot be ruled out.
In general, it is a very complicated task to correctly assess coach Ralph Hasenhüttl’s wonder package this season. Time and again, the Saints hint at their potential. For example, in the 1-1 draw against Manchester City before the short international break. Nevertheless, the southerners also deliver performances from time to time that cause the coaching team headaches. The Saints are particularly welcome away from home in the country’s top division.
The Saints are the league’s shooting gallery away from home
Only two of eleven away games this PL season have been victorious. In addition, there have been three draws and already six defeats. The defence is particularly vulnerable. 24 goals conceded in eleven games is the lowest figure in the league. Since the beginning of 2021, Hasenhüttl’s team has conceded 57 goals away from home, 18 (!) more than the second-weakest defensive team. In 2021/22 alone, five of the six aforementioned away defeats came with at least a two-goal difference.
Even the weekend’s fortunate progress against second division Coventry City is unlikely to have given the team the boost in confidence it was hoping for. To make matters worse, at least four players – Lyanco, Nathan Tella, Alex McCarthy and Armando Broja – are out through injury. In return, Djenepo returns to the squad after his trip to the Africa Cup.
Predicted Southampton line-up:
Forster; Salisu, Bednarek, Stephens; Livramento, Romeu, Ward-Prowse, Walker-Peters; Redmond, Adams, A. Armstrong
Last matches played by Southampton:
FA Cup
02/05 2022 – Southampton 2 – 1 Coventry
Premier League
01/22 2022 – Southampton 1 – 1 Manchester City
01/15 2022 – Wolverhampton 3 – 1 Southampton
01/11 2022 – Southampton 4 – 1 Brentford
FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Swansea 2 – 3 Southampton
Tottenham – Southampton Direct comparison / H2H balance
Tottenham is a typical fear opponent for Southampton. As many as 13 of the last 19 Premier League duels have been lost from the Saints’ point of view. Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side have also lost their last five matches in London. On average, Spurs have scored more than three goals per game in their last five victories. There is therefore much to suggest that a prediction in favour of a handicap win for the favourites could also pay off on Wednesday night between Tottenham and Southampton.
Tottenham – Southampton Tip
There is a regular matchday scheduled in England during the week. In many games the signs seem to be clearly distributed. Also in the duel Tottenham vs. Southampton the betting odds clearly suggest that the capital club will keep the three points in their own stadium.
This is supported by the strong home series of Spurs, who have never lost at home in the Premier League under Conte and have seven wins from ten home games. They have also won their last five PL home games against the Saints. The North Londoners have won 13 of their last 19 Premier League meetings
In our eyes, it is even conceivable that the home victory will be by two or more goals. The reason for this is the Saints’ disastrous defensive statistics away from home. No other first division team has conceded more goals away from home than the “grey mouse” from the north of the country. In addition, five of the six away defeats this PL season have been by at least a two-goal difference.
We therefore bet on a -1 handicap win for the home side between Tottenham and Southampton and get a 2.60 tip at the tested bookmaker Unibet. Five units are definitely justifiable in view of the arguments mentioned. A “win to nil” would also be a possibility for risk-averse bettors, especially since Spurs have stepped up their game defensively under Conte.
