Who will win the expected shootout?

In the US state of Missouri, the NFL playoffs will see a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. The Kansas City Chiefs, the winner of the AFC West, will host the Buffalo Bills, the winner of the AFC East. Both franchises recorded emphatic victories in the Wildcard Round last weekend. So the teams will go into the game with plenty of confidence.

Kickoff for this expectedly highly exciting match is at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Monday morning at 0:30 am German time. The match can be watched live on DAZN and ProSieben.

Kansas City Chiefs – Statistics & current form

For the fourth year in a row, the Kansas City Chiefs are in the Divisional Round, which is sort of the “quarterfinals” of the NFL Playoffs. The winner advances to the Championship Game of the respective conference. In each of the last three years, the franchise around star quarterback Patrick Mahomes has won the games in this round. In 2018, they beat the Colts, in 2019 they defeated the Texans and last season they won against the Browns. So there is more than enough experience in the team. Plus, with ten wins out of their last eleven games, they’re playing the best football at the absolute right time.

Once the machine is rolling

After four losses in the first seven weeks of the regular season, doubts began early in the season as to whether the team would be as competitive this year as in years past. Those doubts, however, have long since passed. One of those four losses was 20-38 at home to the Buffalo Bills. With four turnovers, the Chiefs got in their own way a bit that day.

In the Wildcard Round, the Chiefs defeated the Steelers 41-21 at Arrowhead Stadium, but they struggled early on. It was only after Kansas City fell behind that they scored their first touchdown and put points on the scoreboard in the early stages of the second quarter. The following four drives were all completed with seven points. This game showed once again that the Chiefs are now good at putting together long offensive series. Consistent short passing, coupled with a running game that works and incredible big play potential.

Chiefs cause mismatches

There’s no question that Patrick Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in this league. He had some unusually shaky performances early in the season, but has stabilized considerably. His top playmakers, wide receiver Hill and tight end Kelce, are absolute mismatches for any defence. Above all, their speed and explosiveness are becoming a problem for the opponent. Against the Steelers, running back McKinnon also had his season-high with 61 rushing and 81 receiving yards. He was more than a match for the starting running back Edwards-Helaire. The latter will return from injury this week.

Yes, the Chiefs defence has improved significantly over the course of the season. However, they have not always been convincing in recent weeks. Against a Broncos team that was below average offensively, they allowed a whopping 24 points in Week 18. The week before, they lost the shootout against the Bengals 31-34 and conceded 28 points against the Chargers in Week 15 of the regular season. The front line around Jones and Clark is not to be underestimated against the run, but the secondary seems absolutely vulnerable. The defensive overall is in the bottom third of the league in season stats.

Key Players:
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
WR: Tyreek Hill
TE: Travis Kelce
K: Harrison Butker

Buffalo Bills – stats & current form

What kind of performance was that by the Buffalo Bills in the Wildcard Round? They put on an impressive performance against division rivals Foxborough, giving coach Bill Bilichick’s team no chance at all. The New England Patriots swept the franchise 47-17 from the ice-cold Highmark Stadium in Buffalo. The entire team put in an outstanding performance. Quarterback Josh Allen threw the ball for 308 yards and five touchdowns. In the entire game he had a total of only four passes that did not reach his teammate.

Buffalo seems to be prepared for this year and wants to go at least one step further than last season. There, the Bills lost in the Conference Championship Game of the AFC against the Kansas City Chiefs and thus missed the jump to the Super Bowl. Their current 5-win winning streak shows that, like the Chiefs, they play the best football in December and January.

Varied Offense – Defense Can Be Relyed On

Quarterback Josh Allen is currently playing at an absurdly high level. The performance against New England underlined this once again. On top of his outstanding passing stats, he had 66 rushing yards on six runs in the last game. The combination of his strong passing and running game makes him dangerous for any defence. It should be noted, however, that the offensive line in front of him was a little shaky from time to time.

Despite this mediocre line, the running game worked excellently against a strong Patriots defensive front. In addition to starting running back Singletary, wide receiver McKenzie was used several times in the running game. Playmaker Allen completed 21 passes to nine different receivers against the Patriots. With Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Beasley and Sanders, the team has a broad, experienced and very good wide receiver corps at its disposal. Another factor in the passing game that should not be underestimated is tight end Knox, who caught two touchdowns against the Patriots. In the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills game, the odds for another postseason touchdown from him are 2.75 at the bookmaker Bet365 tested by Wettbasis.

What the Bills can also rely on in recent weeks is their own defence. The offences they have had to play recently certainly haven’t had the potential of the Chiefs offence and yet 15.4 points allowed on average over the last five games is really strong. Even the loss of cornerback White was compensated surprisingly well.

Key Players:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Dawson Knox
K: Tyler Bass

Kansas City Chiefs – Buffalo Bills Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

In the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills game, a bet on over points is appealing. The reason is obvious. Both teams have almost unbelievable offensive power. However, in the last five meetings, the bookmakers’ 55-point limit has only been reached twice. It should be noted that the two franchises rarely face each other. The five games mentioned took place in seven years – two of them in 2021. In total, the Chiefs won three, the Bills two duels.

These games from 2021 are probably most comparable to the presumably high-class matchup in the upcoming Divisional Round. In January 2021, the playoffs of the 2020 NFL Season, the Chiefs won 38-24, and then their path took them all the way to the Super Bowl. Buffalo won the duel in week five of this season. This is the fourth time the two quarterbacks have met head-to-head. In two of the encounters, the Chiefs’ playmaker came out on top with his team.

In the last five games, the Chiefs have scored at least 28 points and allowed an average of 23.4 points. By comparison, Buffalo has scored at least 27 points in every game over that span and allowed an average of just a strong 15.4 points to opponents.

Kansas City Chiefs – Buffalo Bills Tip

For neutral spectators, this clash is probably the most exciting and evenly matched duel of the NFL’s Divisional Round. But precisely because the game Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills is so even, we dare a prediction on the victory of the underdog. This is Buffalo at the bookmakers with odds of 2.5 points. Both teams are perfectly capable of pulling off a shootout offensively, but we think the Bills’ defence is a little stronger based on past performances.

A lot will naturally depend on the playmakers, but we don’t see an advantage for either franchise. Sure, the Chiefs have the more experienced quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, who has two Super Bowl appearances to his name. However, his counterpart Josh Allen also has five playoff games under his belt and is currently in outstanding form.

The high-scoring offenses of both teams suggest that you can pick an over in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. The teams should be aggressive and always try to play 4th down tries, because that is their philosophy and identity.

We see value in the odds on three touchdowns for the visitors in the renewed clash between Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. The team from the state of New York has always managed that in the last six games. In the duel in week five against the Chiefs, it was even five.