Clear number for the Russian?
A year ago Andrey Rublev reached the quarter-finals of the Australian Open for the first time and set the course for a successful year in which he reached a total of four major finals and won another title. Now, however, he will face an accomplished hard court player early in the men’s singles of the first Grand Slam tournament of the new season.
Marin Cilic not only won the US Open in 2014 on his favourite surface, the Croatian also reached the grand final Down Under in 2018. Nevertheless, in the run-up to the duel between Andrey Rublev and Marin Cilic, the odds are clearly in favour of the Russian.
The young Russian’s role as favourite is not only explained by his high standing in the ATP world rankings, where he is currently ranked sixth. The Moscow player also has a strong record against the Croatian hard court specialist. Andrey Rublev has won the last four meetings in a row against Marin Cilic. The betting on his entry into the round of 16 is therefore accordingly well placed.
With a view to the three winning sets, a small handicap of -4.5 games can even be applied to the Russian.
Andrey Rublev – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world: 5
Seeded position: 5
As number five in the ATP world rankings and seeded for the Australian Open 2022, 24-year-old Russian Andrey Rublev certainly enters the tournament with certain title ambitions. After all, a number of top stars are missing, making a newcomer to the throne Down Under very likely.
The Russian, who reached the quarter-finals of the Australian Open for the first time a year ago, has so far lived up to expectations. He easily won both matches 3:0.
Rublev has won both singles in 2022
While Andrey Rublev lost a total of seven games in his opening match against Gianluca Mager, he only lost six games in three sets against Ricardas Berankis. The 24-year-old, who did not play any preparatory tournaments in the run-up to the Grand Slam tournament in Melbourne, has a correspondingly strong tailwind.
The Russian’s slate is therefore still completely white in 2022. Two completed singles and two straight six-set victories, in which he only surrendered four games once, give him a win rate of 100% in the new year.
An (almost) untouchable serve so far
Although the level now rises dramatically for the 24-year-old, who has already hit 26 aces in his first two matches, when he faces a former Australian Open finalist. Nevertheless, Andrey Rublev’s betting on his victory against Marin Cilic is very good, also because of his very strong service game.
The Russian has only surrendered his service once in the tournament so far. If his serve holds up against the Croat, who is not exactly known for his return qualities, this simple remedy could also be the recipe for success in this third round.
Marin Cilic – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world rankings: 27
Position in the seedings: 27
The 33-year-old Croatian Marin Cilic already made his debut on the ATP Tour in 2005, when his current opponent was just six years young. The 2014 US Open champion has a total of 55 appearances in Grand Slam tournaments.
In total, the current number 27 in the ATP world rankings has already won 129 of the 182 singles matches he has played at Grand Slams. Four years ago, he was therefore also in the grand final at the 2018 Australian Open, when he narrowly missed out on the big win against Roger Federer with a 2:3 loss.
Not in the top 10 for three years in a row
It should be noted, however, that the Croatian giant has not been at the top of the world rankings since that same strong run in 2018. That 2018 season was the last time Marin Cilic finished in the top 10 of the ATP world rankings. In the last three years, meanwhile, he always had a win rate of less than 60% per season.
Most recently, the 33-year-old won only 33 of his 56 singles matches in 2021, did not make it past the third round of any Grand Slam tournament and even failed to reach the first round of the two Grand Slams on hard courts.
A win percentage of just 26.6% against Top 10 players
The 2022 Australian Open is already an even greater success for the Croatian, who advanced to the third round in comparatively commanding fashion with two victories. He only lost the third set against Slovakian qualifier Norbert Gombos.
However, considering that he has lost the last four duels with his Russian opponent, he is still the outsider’s role.
Andrey Rublev – Marin Cilic Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 4:1
The two players have faced each other five times so far and only in their first meeting in Geneva in 2015 did Marin Cilic come out on top against the then 17-year-old Russian with a 2-1 win. The last four matches have all gone to Andrey Rublev, who has only dropped one set in those matches.
Andrey Rublev – Marin Cilic tip
In the case of Andrey Rublev against Marin Cilic, the overall prediction clearly goes in the direction of the Russian, who has a weapon with his strong serve that could easily be capable of deciding this duel with the Croat, who fell out of the top 10 a few years ago. In the last four encounters, the 24-year-old has always claimed a clear victory against the 2018 finalist.
Accordingly, we assume that the Russian will sooner or later prevail in this duel as well. The bet on the 24-year-old can therefore also be provided with a small handicap of -4.5 games.
