Supercopa Final: Will Bilbao defend the title?

The final of the Spanish Super Cup is coming up on Sunday. Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao prevailed in their semi-final matches at the Final Four tournament in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, and will now contest the Supercopa de España final on Sunday. The match at the King Fahd Stadium in Riyadh will kick off at 19:30 German time.

Unsurprisingly, Real Madrid are the clear favourites going into the match. Before Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao, the odds of the best betting providers speak for themselves – but beware: Athletic Bilbao are the reigning Supercopa champions, the Basques already surprised everyone last season and are once again in the final as the biggest underdogs of the small tournament.

Real Madrid should be warned – for two reasons. On the one hand, the Blancos barely made it to the final in extra time in their semi-final, and on the other hand, they were defeated by Athletic Bilbao last year.

There are therefore some good reasons to expect a close game and to weigh up your predictions on the outcome and winner of Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao.

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

It was exciting, gripping, dramatic. In the end, Real Madrid won the first semi-final in the Clásico against FC Barcelona 3:2 after extra time in a sometimes high-class match. Real led twice but had to concede the equaliser twice – before they set the lucky punch against their arch-rivals in extra time.

The Blancos are now aiming for their first title in the 2021/22 season. Two years ago, Real won the Super Cup, which was also held in Saudi Arabia at the time. In the final, the “royals” beat city rivals Atletico Madrid 4:1 on penalties in January 2020.

Real Madrid as favourites in Super Cup final

Last year, however, they were surprisingly defeated in the semifinals by Athletic Bilbao – now their opponents in the final on Sunday. Real will therefore certainly be doubly motivated to take a little revenge for the disgrace of last year’s Super Cup.

But last year’s elimination alone shows that the royals should by no means underestimate their opponents from the Basque country. Nevertheless, the role of the favourites is clear in advance. Because, looking at the La Liga table, first meets ninth. 21 points separate the two clubs in Spain’s top flight. It is therefore hardly surprising that the betting odds on Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao are clearly in favour of Real.

Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois – Carvajal, Militao, Fernandez, Mendy – Casemiro, Modric, Kroos – Asensio, Benzema, Vinicius Jr.

Last matches played by Real Madrid:

Super Cup
01/12 2022 – Barcelona 2 – 3 Real Madrid

LaLiga
01/08 2022 – Real Madrid 4 – 1 Valencia

Copa del Rey
01/05 2022 – Alcoyano 1 – 3 Real Madrid

LaLiga
01/02 2022 – Getafe 1 – 0 Real Madrid

12/22 2021 – Athletic Bilbao 1 – 2 Real Madrid

Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form

Athletic Bilbao and knockout games in Spanish cup competitions – it’s always amazing. Whether it’s the Copa del Rey or the Supercopa, it’s precisely these games that Athletic particularly relish, in which the Basque lions give 150 per cent and so often bite their way through. Two seasons in a row, in 2019/20 and 2020/21, Bilbao reached the Copa del Rey final, but lost both (0-1 to Real Sociedad, 0-4 to Barcelona).

Even two finals in a row are remarkable for a mid-table club. Last year’s Super Cup was the big moment when the Athletic Club beat Real Madrid (2:1) and Barcelona (3:2 n.V.) in the Final Four and lifted the title in the air – as a big underdog.

Athletic Bilbao: Not to be underestimated in cup games

And once again they went into the semi-final against champions Atletico Madrid as underdogs – even trailing 0:1 at one point – and yet Bilbao came back to advance to the final. Two late goals from corners within four minutes ensured that Athletic can now defend their Super Cup title on Sunday.

For that reason alone, Bilbao should not be written off in advance. Before the Supercopa final between Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, some people will consider the odds on a win for the Basques to be too high – which of course represents a great chance to cash in.

Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:
Simon – de Marcos, Alvarez, Martinez, Balenziaga – Berenguer, D. Garcia, Vencedor, Muniain – R. Garcia, Williams

Last matches played by Athletic Bilbao:

Super Cup
01/13 2022 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 2 Athletic Bilbao

LaLiga
01/09 2022 – Deportivo Alaves 0 – 0 Athletic Bilbao

Copa del Rey
01/06 2022 – Atletico Mancha Real 0 – 2 Athletic Bilbao

LaLiga
01/03 2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 1 – 3 Athletic Bilbao

12/22 2021 – Athletic Bilbao 1 – 2 Real Madrid

Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao Direct comparison / H2H record

Real Madrid’s status as favourites is not only due to the club’s La Liga gulf and status in itself, but also their recent head-to-head record. Ancelotti’s team has won all three of its last matches against Bilbao (2-1, 1-0, 1-0) and has lost only one of the last ten – the Spanish Super Cup encounter a year ago.

In La Liga, Real Madrid won both duels this season, which naturally makes betting on another victory for the Blancos in Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao an obvious choice.

Real Madrid – Athletic Bilbao betting tips

The fact that Supercopa matches are difficult to predict and extremely closely contested is shown only too well by the results of the last three years. Extra time, penalty shoot-outs and narrow underdog victories – in which Bilbao have always been involved – are the order of the day in the Spanish Super Cup.

The Athletic Club from Bilbao are also the defending champions and can now repeat their triumph. It would be another big surprise, but we don’t believe in it. Real Madrid have been too stable this season, Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior in particular are doing too well.

Of course, it could be a close game again, but you shouldn’t assume it will be a clear-cut affair in view of the fiercely fighting Basque Lions. In the end, however, the team that is much stronger on paper should prevail this time. Therefore, before the Super Cup final Real Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao, our prediction is: Real Madrid will win and more than 1.5 goals will be scored