Do the Chiefs roll over the Steelers again?

Honour to whom honour is due! Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger gets a send-off on a big stage. Before Week 18 of the Regular Season, only the wildest optimists probably believed the Steelers would reach the postseason. The team around quarterback and two-time Super Bowl winner “Big Ben” needed a win and a slip-up by the Colts against the Jaguars. The rest is history. For the Pennsylvania franchise, it’s off to the AFC’s second-best team, the Kansas City Chiefs, in the first round of the NFL playoffs.

The Chiefs missed out on the 1st seed in the conference despite being tied with the Titans in record. The decisive factor was the defeat in the direct duel. For the Chiefs, who have qualified for the playoffs in each of the last six years, it is their first appearance in the wildcard round since January 2017.

So now at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas, it’s the AFC runner-up versus the AFC seventh. For this reason, too, the odds of the bookmakers are clearly on the side of the home team in the matchup Chiefs vs. Steelers.

Kickoff of the game is on Monday, 2:15 a.m. German time. The game can be followed live on ProSieben and DAZN.

Kansas City Chiefs – Statistics & current form

After a very mixed start to the season, Kansas City managed to win nine of their last ten games in the regular season. That catapulted them to their sixth straight AFC West title. However, a loss in the high-scoring game to the Bengals on the penultimate day of play prevented them from winning the AFC Conference.

A Different Kind of Offense

The Chiefs’ offense is playing much more patiently than in previous years. They put down long, consistent drives. The basis for this is the midrange passing game. In return, you see less big plays, which have defined the offense in recent years. With Hill and Kelce, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has two immensely important starting positions. Add to that Robinson, Pringle and Gordon, other wide receivers who are each difficult to defend.

This type of offense demands a consistent short passing game. Quarterback Mahomes showed weaknesses in this area at the beginning of the season, but has stabilised. Furthermore, the offensive line is performing better, which buys him time in the pocket. Mahomes also has almost unique qualities making plays late downfield. That makes this offense once again one of the most dangerous in the league.

The Chiefs can run the ball

Furthermore, it’s noticeable that this Missouri State team can move the ball very well on the ground. They also get their starting running back for this game in Edwards-Helaire. With one of the best pass blocking lines in the NFL, it’s definitely safe to assume they can run the ball in this matchup. Especially with the NFL’s worst rushing defense visiting now. For that reason, keep an eye on a pick for an Edwards-Helaire touchdown in the Chiefs vs. Steelers game.

The defensive front will also have advantages in the matchup against the Steelers. If it gets the opponent into long 2nd and 3rd downs, the pass rush can really do some damage.

Pittsburgh Steelers – stats & recent form

The Steelers are arguably the surprise in the playoffs. Before the last game day of the regular season, the team was given about an eight percent chance of making the postseason. But that’s exactly what Pittsburgh did. In retrospect, it was the draw against the Detroit Lions that ensured their second consecutive playoff appearance. For it was that very tie that put them ahead of the Colts in the final standings. With a 9-7-1 record compared to a 9-8 record, they were the last team in the AFC to punch their ticket to the wildcard round.

The search for consistency

The season has been very inconsistent for the franchise. After the opening win against the Bills, they lost three games, but again won the next four. Again, three winless games followed. Among others with the “tie” against the Lions. Things continued to be so changeable. With two wins at the end against the division rivals from Cleveland and Baltimore, they still managed to secure second place in the AFC North.

Quick passing offense

The term probably best describes the Steelers offense. No other quarterback in the NFL gets rid of the ball as quickly as Ben Roethlisberger. That limits the offense extremely. Plays can hardly develop and the receivers have to create quick separations to catch the ball. In principle, 90% of the passing game consists of these short and quick passes. In addition, there are three or four shot plays in the game. These are the ones that lead to the big plays. Of course, only when the balls arrive. If Roethlisberger gets pressure from the opposing defence, however, this structure quickly becomes shaky.

Running back Najee Harris, who the team selected in the first round of the 2021 draft, got a lot of workload this season. Overall, he had the second most rushing attempts in the entire league with 307. He ran for 1200 yards, an average of 3.9 yards per run attempt.

The goal of the visitors in the renewed matchup with the Chiefs must be to keep the game close. But that is more likely to succeed with their own defence than their own offence. Pittsburgh must not allow the Chiefs to “run away” with the game by two or even three scores. Then it will be very difficult to get back into the game. The defence has the potential to do that. However, they have to be careful not to fall apart against the run. In the regular season they had the worst rushing defence in the NFL with an average of 146 yards allowed per game.

Kansas City Chiefs – Pittsburgh Steelers Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

It’s natural to look at the Week 16 clash between the two teams. On December 26, the Chiefs won handily 36-10, leading 31-0 in the third quarter before Pittsburgh was able to put points on the scoreboard for the first time. In the renewed Chiefs vs. Steelers clash, the forecast is that the Steelers will at least be able to keep the game close for longer.

The two teams have faced each other five times since 2016. Due to the low importance of the preseason, we do not pay attention to the preseason game. The Steelers won three of those duels, with the Chiefs winning the last two. In both victories, in 2018 & 2021, the Chiefs scored over 30 points.

Kansas City, incidentally, also scored 30 points in four of their last five games of the season. That’s why, in the Chiefs vs. Steelers clash, we’ll venture a guess that they’ll surpass that mark in this game as well.

Kansas City Chiefs – Pittsburgh Steelers Tip

There are few points in this duel that favour a success for the visitors. The conditions are similar to the matchup in December. The Chiefs even get back an important starting tight end in Kelce compared to the last game against the Steelers. Confidence in the Chiefs offense is greater than confidence in the Steelers defense.

The Chiefs are the team in the NFL that starts games the best. Especially the “scripted” drives at the beginning of a game are executed almost perfectly and usually lead to points. In addition, they have been ahead at the break nine times in the past ten games. In the Chiefs vs. Steelers game, the odds on a half-time lead + win are therefore understandably tempting.