First RBL away win in 2021/22 at the ninth attempt?
RB Leipzig are on the fast track with new coach Domenico Tedesco! From the first four games under the leadership of Marsch’s successor, the Bullen were able to record seven points and thus make a small leap forward in the standings. However, in ninth place, they are still five points off the Champions League places they are aiming for. The next step in the right direction should be taken on Saturday
The central city side will then be guests at the Mercedes-Benz Arena, which has seen more away wins (four) than home victories (three) in the current Bundesliga season. It is therefore not really surprising that the odds on the success of the reigning runners-up are lower ahead of the clash between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig. At the top, the odds for the favourites to win are just 1.65.
This assessment is primarily due to the fact that the Swabians have not managed much recently. At the same time, RBL is also a kind of fearful opponent for VfB. On average, the Saxons have scored 2.7 points per game against their upcoming opponents in Germany’s top division. The Champions League participant has a higher win rate against no other club (86%). Why we are leaning towards an alternative tip between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig is explained below.
VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form
The relegation battle is the all-embracing topic at VfB Stuttgart this season. The Swabians are currently in the last direct non-relegation spot, but in 15th place they are only one point ahead of the relegation places. Coach Pellegrino Matarazzo’s team, which caused a sensation last year with an attractive style of play and a surprisingly good final position (9th), simply cannot get going in 2021/22.
On a year-to-date basis, VfB have been waiting for three games without a win and even a goal of their own. Last week, Stuttgart missed numerous good chances in the away match against SpVgg Greuther Fürth and finally had to settle for a 0-0 draw. Nevertheless, the fact that the relegation candidates created many top-class chances and that it may only be a matter of time before the offensive knot bursts again gave them hope.
Is Stuttgart’s offensive power finally coming back?
Coach Matarazzo’s general idea of the game is to play courageously forward and not to wall oneself in at the back. We expect the same on Saturday against RBL, which is why we are predicting three or more goals in the match before the clash between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig. In ten of the 18 matches played so far with Swabian participation, a bet on over 2.5 goals would have been crowned with success.
On a positive note, the disastrous personnel situation that prevailed for much of the first half of the season is slowly easing. Silas and Faghir will not play at the weekend, Marmoush is with the Algerian national team at the Africa Cup, but otherwise all men are on board. Even Mavropanos and Karazor, who have been missing recently, could return to the line-up. Up front, meanwhile, the officials are hoping for a scoring threat from Kalajdzic, who returned from injury and made a promising comeback against Fürth.
Predicted line-up of VfB Stuttgart:
F. Müller – Mavropanos, Anton, Ito – Karazor, Sosa – Massimo, W. Endo, Mangala – Führich – Kalajdzic
Last matches played by VfB Stuttgart:
1st Bundesliga
01/08 2022 – Greuther Fürth 0 – 0 VfB Stuttgart
12/19 2021 – 1. FC Köln 1 – 0 VfB Stuttgart
12/14 2021 – VfB Stuttgart 0 – 5 Bayern Munich
12/11 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 0 – 2 VfB Stuttgart
12/05 2021 – VfB Stuttgart 2 – 2 Hertha Berlin
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
The patient has stabilised and is now on the road to recovery. This phrase, implemented from the language of doctors into football, could be very appropriately projected onto RB Leipzig’s situation at the moment. After an interim slump with only one win from five Bundesliga games between the end of October and the beginning of December, the consequence of which was the dismissal of Jesse Marsch, the Saxons have now caught themselves under new coach Tedesco.
The former Schalke player has won two and drawn one of his four games in charge. Although the reigning runners-up are still lagging behind their own expectations, the mood in the surrounding area is much more positive and confident again. This became clear last weekend when Mainz 05 were brought to their knees 4:1 in their own stadium.
Leipzig continue to fight away phobia
This is the fifth time this season that the red bulls have scored four or more goals in a match. Only FC Bayern are ahead of the central city side in this offensive statistic, who, in ninth place, also have the fifth-best attack in the league. As the favourites now face a defence that has conceded at least one goal in each of the past 13 Bundesliga home games, Silva, Nkunku and Co. can be expected to score twice or more again. Between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig, the odds on 2+ goals in the course of the match are therefore definitely worth a mention.
The only factor that could stand in the way in this respect relates to Leipzig’s weakness away from home, where they have now failed to win away from home for eleven (!) league games. Apart from bottom-placed Fürth, the Bullen are the only first division team still waiting for their first away win this season. Rank 17 in the away table is the logical consequence. Tedesco’s team has not kept a clean sheet in twelve consecutive league matches…
Forsberg, Halstenberg, Mukiele and Laimer are missing due to injuries or are still in rehabilitation training. Haidara and Ilaix Moriba are away with their national teams at the Africa Cup and are also not available. However, many changes in the starting eleven are not to be expected anyway, especially as some players have found their feet again under Tedesco. The best example is ex-Frankfurt player Andre Silva, who scored more goals in the last four games with the new coach on the sidelines (four) than in the previous 14 Bundesliga games (three).
Predicted line-up of RB Leipzig:
Gulacsi – Simakan, Orban, Gvardiol – Klostermann, T. Adams, Kampl, Angelino – Poulsen, Nkunku – Silva
Last matches played by RB Leipzig:
1st Bundesliga
01/08 2022 – RB Leipzig 4 – 1 Mainz 05
12/18 2021 – RB Leipzig 0 – 2 Arminia Bielefeld
12/15 2021 – Augsburg 1 – 1 RB Leipzig
12/11 2021 – RB Leipzig 4 – 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Champions League Grp. A
12/07 2021 – RB Leipzig 2 – 1 Manchester City
VfB Stuttgart – RB Leipzig Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
There have been seven meetings between these two clubs in the Bundesliga so far. With six wins and one draw, the direct comparison clearly goes to Leipzig, who have also gone six times without conceding a goal, thus putting more clean sheets on paper against the Swabians than against any other first division team. Stuttgart, meanwhile, have played no other club in the top flight more often without coming out on top even once. The first leg on matchday two was also a straightforward affair with the Bullen winning 4-0.
VfB Stuttgart – RB Leipzig tip
A conceivably difficult task awaits the fourth-last-placed team in the standings from Stuttgart this coming weekend. And that from two points of view. On the one hand, the Swabians have never won against the central city side in seven attempts in the Bundesliga. Secondly, Leipzig have by far the better form curve to show. Seven points from the last four games under coach Tedesco compare to three games without a win or goal for VfB.
It is therefore understandable that the odds between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig swing in the direction of the visitors, who have not won in eleven away games this season and have conceded at least one goal in their last twelve away games. But the South Germans have also failed to keep a defensive zero in any of their past twelve matches at home.
We therefore believe that betting on three or more goals in the match between VfB Stuttgart and RB Leipzig will pay off. The Saxons have one of the most dangerous offences in the league, which has been getting better and better of late. However, the Matarazzo team is also pursuing a courageous style of play and is also relying on the offensive key players who have returned in recent days and weeks to increase the quality of the game.
Whoever wants to play higher quotes can combine the RBL away win with the over addition. The third alternative would be the double HT2/FT2 result, as we rate the Tedesco team as clearly stronger and more confident in its current form.
