Without Salah and Mané: Will Arsenal take advantage?

The EFL Cup semi-final first leg between Liverpool and Arsenal was supposed to have gone ahead last week, but due to several positive tests at the Reds, the encounter had to be rescheduled for next Thursday.

In the meantime, however, there are heated discussions about whether this postponement was actually justified or whether the Champions League winners of 2020 would not have had enough professionals at their disposal. The English Football League has already announced an investigation and, in the worst case, the Klopp team could face consequences. However, this unease is not yet reflected in the odds between Liverpool and Arsenal.

The men from the Merseyside are quite clearly favoured and this despite the fact that there is hardly a top European team that has suffered as much as LFC due to the African Cup. Without key players like Mané or Salah, the task against the currently tidy Gunners could be more complicated than expected. It may therefore even be an option to predict a surprise in the first leg at Anfield Road between Liverpool and Arsenal.

Liverpool – Statistics & current form

Liverpool Football Club are not going through an easy period at the moment for a number of reasons at once. On the one hand, the Reds’ decision-makers are accused of reporting negative tests too late to the authorities, thus increasing the likelihood of match postponements. On the other hand, things are not really going well in sporting terms either at the moment.

In the Premier League, for example, coach Jürgen Klopp’s team has not won since 16 December. In the three games since then, they have only managed two points, although the Champions League aspirants have to be given credit for the fact that these were three complicated away games against Tottenham, Leicester and Chelsea. But it is also a fact that the dream of a new championship is already almost over.

How seriously do Liverpool take the EFL Cup?

The bottom line situation, which is rather unsatisfactory, could be further exacerbated in the next few weeks as a number of absentees are lamented in terms of personnel. As already mentioned, Salah, Mané and Keita are not expected back from the Africa Cup until February. In addition, Elliott, Origi, who is willing to transfer, Thiago and Phillips are all missing due to injury. At least the infection situation within the team has calmed down, so that Alexander-Arnold is the only professional who is not yet available due to a positive test.

Against this background, we do not think it is a particularly good idea to bet on a home win in the EFL Cup between Liverpool and Arsenal. This is not least due to the fact that coach Klopp does not usually pay much attention to the EFL Cup. Since taking up his post at the beginning of October 2015, the German coach has never made it to the final of this English league cup with the Reds. On several occasions, they were eliminated in the earlier rounds. Three semi-final appearances were the highest of feelings.

On Thursday evening, the ex-Dortmund man will once again turn his team inside out, on the one hand because of the absences mentioned above, but on the other hand also with a view to the important home match on Sunday lunchtime against Brentford. We expect youngsters like Bradley, Jones or Gordon in the starting eleven and are therefore sceptical whether the lower win odds offered on the home side between Liverpool and Arsenal are justified.

Predicted Liverpool line-up:
Alisson; Bradley, Matip, Van Dijk, Tsimikas; Henderson, Fabinho, Jones; Gordon, Jota, Minamino

Last matches played by Liverpool:

FA Cup
01/09 2022 – Liverpool FC 4 – 1 Shrewsbury

Premier League
01/02 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 2 Liverpool FC

12/28 2021 – Leicester 1 – 0 Liverpool FC

Carabao Cup
12/22 2021 – Liverpool FC (5)3 – 3(4) Leicester

Premier League
12/19 2021 – Tottenham 2 – 2 Liverpool FC

Arsenal – Statistics & current form

While their Anfield opponents are in a lot of trouble at the moment, Arsenal Football Club fans can be pleased with their team’s performance so far this season. After several years of mediocrity, there are currently many indications that the capital club will return to Europe for the 2022/23 season. They currently sit fourth in the Premier League’s interim rankings, with several rivals lurking behind them in promising positions.

Recently, happiness and sadness have been close together for the Gunners. In the Premier League, coach Mikel Arteta’s young side were on the verge of defeat at the hands of industry leaders Manchester City before an unnecessary sending-off and a last-minute goal led to a bitter 2-1 defeat. Nevertheless, the performance shown for long stretches in this match was an indication that the Londoners should no longer be underestimated.

Arsenal on course for redemption in the League Cup?

At the same time, however, it also became clear at the weekend that the former English champions always have to go to the maximum to deliver good results. Unfortunately, they failed to do so in the third round of the FA Cup, losing 1-0 at second division Nottingham Forest. Perhaps this warning signal came at exactly the right time, however, because the Spanish coach’s team is counting on something in the EFL Cup. For the first time since 1993, they would like to win the equivalent of the French Coupe de la Ligue.

In any case, the Gunners have made a very solid impression in the competition so far. They have won four games, never by less than a two-goal difference. 16 goals scored and only one conceded underline the theory that Arsenal are perhaps taking the competition a little more seriously than Liverpool, who, as is well known, are dancing on three other highs (PL, FA Cup & CL).

Since we can therefore assume that Arteta will field his best possible formation, we would refrain from predicting a home win between Liverpool and Arsenal, even though it should be borne in mind that the second leg is still on the agenda next week. The visitors will be without Aubameyang, Elneny, Partey, Pepe and Xhaka and Balogun, who have tested positive. The injured Tomiyasu and Smith-Rowe are also questionable.

Predicted Arsenal line-up:
Ramsdale; Tomiyasu, White, Gabriel, Tierney; Lokonga, Patino; Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli; Lacazette

Last matches played by Arsenal:

FA Cup
01/09 2022 – Nottingham Forest 1 – 0 Arsenal London

Premier League
01/01 2022 – Arsenal London 1 – 2 Manchester City

12/26 2021 – Norwich 0 – 5 Arsenal London

Carabao Cup
12/21 2021 – Arsenal London 5 – 1 Sunderland

Premier League
12/18 2021 – Leeds 1 – 4 Arsenal London

Liverpool – Arsenal Tip

A week late, the first leg of the second semi-final in the EFL Cup between the Reds and the Gunners is also underway. So before the probably decisive second leg takes place next week, these two teams will already know who would be the opponent in the final on 27 February. At the moment, everything points to Chelsea FC, who won their home match against Tottenham 2-0.

In this semifinal, everything is open in our eyes. On the one hand, because both teams are struggling with various absences and, on the other hand, because the guests from London can undoubtedly compensate for the razor-thin disadvantages in terms of individual quality with their greater ambition or the generally higher prioritisation of this competition. The bottom line, therefore, is that we can expect a competitive as well as exciting first leg at Anfield Road on Thursday night.

The reason why we still believe that Arteta’s team can achieve a good result is primarily due to the fact that LFC have not been convincing of late, taking just two points from three Premier League games and also having to do without many key players. The absence of Salah and Mané, who are both away at the Africa Cup, is particularly serious.

We therefore believe that the more promising value is to be found between Liverpool and Arsenal in the betting on an away win.