Do the Saints push past the Bees?

The English Premier League still has a very intense spring ahead of it, with countless games needing to be replayed. The few free dates must be exploited because further postponements are threatening. Actually, two catch-up matches should have been played on Tuesday, but one match had to be postponed again early on. Thus, only the clash between Southampton and Brentford at St. Mary’s Stadium will be played on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the clash between Everton and Leicester had to be postponed again. This clash in the south of England pits two teams from the middle of the table against each other. The home side of Austrian head coach Ralph Hasenhüttl are currently 14th in the table, two points behind the best promoted team, Brentford. Thus, the hosts could climb past the Bees with a win, for which odds of 2.00 are offered on the Southampton vs Brentford match.

This favouritism is also due to Brentford’s recent performances away from home, as Thomas Frank’s side have not won in five away games. The Bees’ next attempt starts on Tuesday night at 8:45pm.

Southampton – Statistics & current form

Unnecessary extra work had to be done by Southampton last weekend. In Wales, the FA Cup match against Swansea City was on the agenda. Despite taking an early lead, Hasenhüttl’s side had to play 120 minutes to secure a narrow progress. The Saints were outnumbered for 90 minutes of the game after Yan Valery was sent off early with a yellow card.

Only one home defeat in 2021/22

However, the extra-time win despite a long period of being shorthanded prolonged Southampton Football Club’s thoroughly good form. In their last seven matches, Southampton have only lost 3-0 to the in-form Gunners. However, this good record is somewhat clouded by the fact that there are an extremely high number of draws on the books. Five of these seven games (at Swansea it was 1-1 after 90 minutes) ended in a draw.

This can be seen especially in the home games, so far only the home performance against Wolverhampton was lost narrowly (0:1). Nevertheless, one cannot speak of imposing home strength, as there are only two victories on the home side. No less than six games have ended in a draw. Many goals are not to be expected, on average there were only 1.89 goals per game at St. Mary’s Stadium. Therefore, the prediction for Southampton against Brentford is definitely Under 2.5.

Favourite Month January

Statistics in favour of the home win can also be found though. In both 2020 and 2021, Ralph Hasenhüttl was able to celebrate a victory in the first league game of the new year. Should this also happen on Tuesday, Southampton would start three years in a row with a win for only the second time in the club’s history (1969-1971).

This is supported by the fact that Southampton’s win rate in January is the highest of any month. In all months in which at least ten PL games have been played, January has had the most wins in percentage terms (34 out of 82 – 41.5 per cent).

Predicted Southampton line-up:
Forster – Bedanrek, Simeu, Valery – Perraud, Stuart Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Diallo, Walker-Peters – Adam Armstrong, Long

Last matches played by Southampton:

FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Swansea 2 – 3 Southampton

Premier League
12/28 2021 – Southampton 1 – 1 Tottenham

12/26 2021 – West Ham 2 – 3 Southampton

12/15 2021 – Crystal Palace 2 – 2 Southampton

12/11 2021 – Arsenal London 3 – 0 Southampton

Brentford – Statistics & current form

Brentford also had a successful weekend in the FA Cup. Joker Bryan Mbeumo was mainly responsible for the 4:1 victory against fourth league team FC Port Vale after his substitution. It was the second win for the Bees from London in their second competitive match of 2022. After two defeats at the end of 2021, Frank’s team started the new calendar year with a 2-1 home win against Aston Villa.

Five away games without a win

At Brentford, numbers rule and nothing is left to chance. What has not been conveyed, however, is whether the previously very strong 2021/22 season could have been planned to the same extent. At the halfway point of the season, Brentford are very strong on their Premier League debut and currently have no relegation worries. With 23 points, the lead over the first relegation place is already a comfortable twelve points.

Recently, however, there has been a bit of sand in the gears, especially in the away games. Brentford started the new season with four games without defeat away from home at the Community Stadium. However, the 2-1 away win in the derby against West Ham United on 3 October was the last full success away from home. In the last five away games, there have been three defeats and two draws. Although the visitors are ahead of the home side, the higher odds for Southampton against Brentford are understandable.

Predicted line-up of Brentford:
Fernandez – Jansson, Bech Sörensen, Pinnock – Thompson, Jensen, Baptiste, Onyeka, Roerslav Rasmussen – Toney, Wissa

Last matches played by Brentford:

FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Port Vale 1 – 4 Brentford

Premier League
01/02 2022 – Brentford 2 – 1 Aston Villa

12/29 2021 – Brentford 0 – 1 Manchester City

12/26 2021 – Brighton 2 – 0 Brentford

Carabao Cup
12/22 2021 – Brentford 0 – 2 Chelsea London

Southampton – Brentford Direct comparison / H2H record

A first – for the very first time the Saints and the Bees will face each other in the highest division. However, there are a few duels in the database. In 2010/11, there was a victory for the visiting team in the third-tier League One. The visitors were also able to celebrate in the last encounter to date, a League Cup match in September 2020. Underdog Brentford won 2-0 at St Mary’s Stadium. Odds of 4.00 are on offer for another win for the visitors in Tuesday’s catch-up game between Southampton and Brentford.

Southampton – Brentford Tip

Both teams are a bit in no man’s land in the table. Ambitions forward, meaning Europe, are not realistic. The lead over the relegation places also seems relatively comfortable. However, the many catch-up games could still cause some shifts in the standings. Given the Saints’ home record (six draws in nine games), a prediction of a draw between Southampton and Brentford is certainly justifiable.

However, Brentford have not reached the level of their home games in recent months, especially away from home, and have performed much weaker. Southampton have gained a lot of confidence in recent weeks (one defeat in seven games) and tend to be a little stronger than the visitors. Therefore, we recommend betting on a home win in the match between Southampton and Brentford. Six units are used as the stake.

Other exciting options include predicting a game without much goal action. St Mary’s Stadium is so far a place for games with few goals (two out of nine ended with an Over 2.5). Therefore, both the Under 2.5 and “Both teams meet? No” are still to be found in our top tips.