Will the Saints still make the play-offs?
There’s hardly a chance left, so it’s important to make the most of it. That’s the motto for the New Orleans Saints’ trip to Atlanta to play the Falcons for the very last playoff spot in the NFC.
More precisely, it’s a long-distance duel against the 49ers, who have to play the Rams at the same time. So their chances are not that small. The statisticians see them at 39%, which we think is a bit much for the fact that even the game in Atlanta is not a foregone conclusion.
The first leg in New Orleans, for example, the Saints lost 25-27, which was also the start of the drama this season. Five losses in a row sent them from a sure playoff contender to slipping out of the postseason ranks.
Still, they should be able to win in Atlanta now. On the one hand, there is nothing at stake for the Falcons, on the other hand, New Orleans now has a very safe kicker in Brett Maher. For the Falcons vs. Saints game, our prediction is a Saints win in a field goal orgy.
Kickoff for the game in Atlanta is Sunday night at 10:25 p.m. The game will be broadcast live on ProSieben and on DAZN’s RedZone.
Atlanta Falcons – Statistics & current form
The Falcons are considered one of the big disappointments of this season and that is how they have been perceived almost throughout. All the more surprising is a look at the table of the NFC South, in which they are only one win behind the Saints.
One more win and they would even have had a play-off chance. That’s how close joy and disaster can sometimes be, though a playoff appearance wouldn’t have done the franchise any favours.
Atlanta no chance against top teams
All of the Falcons’ wins this season have come against teams not currently in a playoff spot (Giants, Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Jaguars, Panthers, Lions). Against the top teams, on the other hand, there was one clear defeat after the other.
0:25 against New England, 3:43 against Dallas or 6:32 against Philly, to name just a few of their weak games. So the narrow first-leg victory against the Saints is all the more surprising – even though they are not one of the top teams this season either.
At least kicker Koo was convincing
We don’t need to talk much about Matt Ryan and his once again mediocre season. Nor about Kyle Pitts, despite his tight end rookie record – this one was expected from the 4th pick of the 2021 draft, after all.
One player, however, can confidently be counted among the top 5 in the league even in this weak season: Kicker Younghoe Koo. With a field goal percentage of 92.6% and a perfect record under 40 yards, he definitely did not disappoint.
He should have another full schedule against this strong Saints defence on Sunday, which is why betting on a total of Over 3 Field Goals seems like a very safe bet for Atlanta vs. New Orleans for us.
Key Players:
QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Cordarrelle Patterson
WR: Russell Gage
TE: Kyle Pitts
K: Younghoe Koo
New Orleans Saints – stats & current form
Thanks to a must-win over the Carolina Panthers, the Saints are still in the running for the final playoff spot in the NFC. Since they have the much easier opponent with the Falcons, the fair is not yet read for them.
However, they have to get back on track offensively, otherwise a postseason qualification would only be a postponement of the end of the season for them by one week.
Touchdowns missing
What was completely unthinkable in Drew Bree’s time is currently the order of the day for the Saints: hardly any touchdowns are scored. Especially via the pass, there was only one in the last four games that was carried into the end zone.
But even the run has hardly worked lately. Against the Bucs, Dolphins and Panthers, New Orleans was only able to score a single touchdown. Far too few for a self-proclaimed top team.
Of course, this also has to do with their personnel situation. Their top passer Jameis Winston is out for the rest of the season. Top wide receiver Michael Thomas met the same fate.
The Saints motto the last few weeks: Win, no matter what
So kicker Brett Maher has had to do it in recent games. The former Cowboy converted 92.9% of all field goals since his signing in the middle of the season – third among all NFL kickers. Against Carolina on Sunday, he was once again the busiest point scorer with twelve points.
Since it is now against another team with a top kicker on NFL Game Day 18, we have also focused on kicking in our betting recommendations. Because with Falcons vs Saints, the odds on Over three field goals are just too good to ignore.
Key Players:
QB: Taysom Hill
RB: Alvin Kamara
WR: Marquez Callaway
TE: Adam Trautman
K: Aldrick Rosas
Atlanta Falcons – New Orleans Saints Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The Saints’ 25-27 home loss to Atlanta in November was a surprise not only because of form, but also because the Falcons actually suit the Saints well as opponents. Six of the last eight direct duels went to New Orleans.
They are again the favourites on Sunday, although a final game of the season is always good for surprises. There have been the most adventurous results in recent years – also because the Falcons have nothing to lose and can risk everything.
Thus, handicap betting on New Orleans is an option, but not our top recommendation. The one on Falcons vs. Saints is a bet on Over three Field Goals, which should be highly likely with these two kickers.
Atlanta Falcons – New Orleans Saints Tip
The Saints should win the game on Sunday. However, you would have thought the same against the Giants or Eagles. To that extent, we’d be a little cautious betting on them, especially with a handicap of more than a field goal.
But we do have a backup betting plan: Over three field goals. We have already written about the class of kickers Koo and Maher, which is why the odds on them in Atlanta vs. New Orleans are really worthwhile at up to 2.30.
Furthermore, bets on subpar points are still an option. If more field goals are scored than touchdowns, the number of total points does not increase immeasurably. In the game between Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints, the forecast on Under 43 points brings betting odds of 1.60.
