Swansea return to the pitch after almost a month’s break
English football has been shaken up in recent weeks and countless match cancellations have been the result. The current condition of the teams is therefore sometimes at completely different levels. A prime example of this is the FA Cup third round clash between Swansea and Southampton.
There is a huge question mark behind the current performance of the Welsh club. The Swans were last in action on 11 December, since when they have not been able to play a match due to corona. After almost a month’s break from competition, the FA Cup match will probably almost be a preparation for the upcoming league tasks. A win would undoubtedly be a surprise, with bookmakers offering odds of just under 4.00 for a home win for Swansea against Southampton.
Austrian head coach Ralph Hasenhüttl cannot look back on a run of success in recent weeks, but the Saints have looked solid and a difficult opponent to beat. Higher quality, match rhythm and passable results – on paper, a lot speaks for the guests. An impression that is deceptive? The match kicks off at the Liberty Stadium on Saturday at 6:30 p.m.
Swansea – Statistics & current form
The club from Wales last featured in the Premier League in 2017/18, only missing out on a return to the English football top flight in the play-offs last season. Swansea are currently a long way from those heights in the table. They are 13 points off the eighth-place play-off spot, while they are just eight points clear of the first relegation spot.
Without match practice since 11 December
The current 17th place in the table must be viewed with a little caution, however, because ideally the Swans could still climb up. Head coach Russell Martin’s team has no less than three catch-up games to play in the spring of 2022. In the already packed calendar of the English Championship (46 regular league match days), Swansea face an absolutely mammoth programme in the coming weeks and months.
The focus for the remainder of the season must undoubtedly be on the league. With 24 league games to go until the beginning of May, progressing in the cup would not necessarily be ideal and the already heavy workload would be exacerbated.
Swansea’s last league game was on 11 December, when they were beaten 4-1 by Nottingham Forest. It was already the third defeat in a row, the last full success was on 24 November. For the last home win they even have to look back to October (30 October 3:0 against Peterborough). The 4-4-3 record at home in the Liberty Stadium is average at best.
A long (enforced) break, weak results in the games before, no home win for more than two months – the omens are anything but ideal for the hosts from the Championship. Therefore, betting on the home side in the Swansea vs Southampton clash is strongly discouraged.
Predicted line-up of Swansea:
Hamer – Bennett, Latibeaudiere, Downes – Manning, Walsh, Grimes, Laird – Paterson, Ntcham – Obafemi
Last matches played by Swansea:
Championship
12/11 2021 – Swansea 1 – 4 Nottingham Forest
12/04 2021 – Middlesboro 1 – 0 Swansea
11/27 2021 – Swansea 2 – 3 Reading
11/24 2021 – Barnsley 0 – 2 Swansea
11/20 2021 – Swansea 1 – 1 Blackpool
Southampton – Statistics & current form
For head coach Ralph Hasenhüttl’s Saints, the game in Wales will actually represent their first appearance in 2022. Last weekend, Southampton were forced to break as newly-promoted Newcastle were hit by the virus and could not play the game. It was the second involuntary fixture cancellation for the Saints this season. With two games of catch-up to play, Southampton currently sit 14th in the table.
A matter of perspective
While the current condition of the Swans from Wales cannot be ascertained, for Southampton it is a matter of perspective. Pessimists would probably point out that in the last eight Premier League games they have only managed one win (3:2 at West Ham United), optimists on the other hand would probably point out the fact that in the last six league games they have only suffered one defeat (0:3 at Arsenal).
The fact is that four of the last six league games have ended in a draw, which means that the Saints are treading water. After a disappointing start to the season, however, Hasenhüttl’s team has stabilised considerably. The lead over the first relegation place is already ten points.
The FA Cup has been held in high esteem by the Saints for several years, and last year’s trip only ended in the semi-finals. The Saints should be rested due to the break last weekend. The favourites have a full complement of players, which is undoubtedly another argument to recommend an away win in the Swansea vs Southampton clash.
Predicted line-up of Southampton:
Caballero – Small, Simeu, Valery – Elyounoussi, Romeu, Ward-Prowse, Walker-Peters – Adam Armstrong, Walcott – Broja
Last matches played by Southampton:
Premier League
12/28 2021 – Southampton 1 – 1 Tottenham
12/26 2021 – West Ham 2 – 3 Southampton
12/15 2021 – Crystal Palace 2 – 2 Southampton
12/11 2021 – Arsenal London 3 – 0 Southampton
12/04 2021 – Southampton 1 – 1 Brighton
Swansea – Southampton Direct comparison / H2H record
The two teams have never faced each other in the oldest competition in football history. Only eight games in the English Premier League and 51 games in the Championship (there was only one in 1939/40) are in the database. With 34 wins in 67 games, the Saints have won just over half of all games against the team from Wales. The last time this clash took place was in May 2018 – Southampton celebrated a narrow 1-0 victory at the Liberty Stadium.
Swansea – Southampton Tip
A look at the FA Cup games this weekend shows that, for example, similar betting odds as in this game are also offered for West Brom against Brighton or Millwall against Crystal Palace. From a sober point of view, the odds of 2.00 for Swansea against Southampton are a bit too high for the visitors. After four weeks without match practice – and a long time without team training – it is hard to imagine the home side pulling off a surprise.
In addition, it must not be forgotten that the Swans did not act in good shape at all before the long break, but were already there looking for form. The priority of this cup match is probably completely different for both teams. Swansea can see it as a perfect test for the upcoming league games, while Southampton is a team that cares a lot about the FA Cup. Therefore, the prediction for Swansea against Southampton is clearly in favour of the visitors, a stake of high seven units is absolutely justifiable for this bet.
