Crisis duel at Elland Road

The big crunch clash in the English Premier League kicks off at 5:30pm on Sunday afternoon. Before that, there are four games at 3pm, which serve as a kind of appetiser for the duel between the two German top coaches. Only teams from the lower half of the table are in action. At Elland Road, Leeds and Burnley face each other, two teams that have to deal with the relegation battle.

Not only have both teams struggled recently with sporting problems and disappointing results, but they have also had major personnel problems. Leeds will play their first league game since 18 December. Burnley were in action on Thursday but had an 18-day break from competition before that.

The mixture of lack of rhythm and disappointing results does not suggest a footballing treat. A battle game is to be expected, with Leeds against Burnley as fairly clear favourites according to current odds. About double the betting is tempting in the event of success for Marcelo Bielsa’s Whites.

Leeds – Statistics & current form

What on earth has happened to Marcelo Bielsa’s side? Leeds United have looked nothing like the attack-minded side of last season in recent weeks. The second year after promotion is often more difficult, but this development was by no means expected at Leeds.

14 goals conceded in three games

Leeds coach Marcelo Bielsa is regarded as an absolute tactics freak who doesn’t want to leave anything to chance. As a promoted team, his team impressed with unconditional offensive play and took many goals against. In 2020/21, they conceded 34 goals after 18 games. This season, Frenchman Ilhan Meslier has already made 36 saves.

In the last three Premier League games alone, Leeds have conceded no fewer than 14 (!) goals. For the first time since April 2015, Leeds could now lose four league games in a row. Should Burnley also be able to exploit their recent defensive frailty and claim a win by at least three goals, Leeds would face four consecutive defeats by 3+ goals conceded for the first time since December 1959.

The injury devil strikes

The number of goals conceded is at a – consistently – high level. The big difference can be seen in the offensive, as Leeds have scored only 18 goals so far (last year it was 30 goals). In view of Leeds’ personnel situation this season, however, the regression is also somewhat explainable. Recently, Leeds had only nine professional players (!) at their disposal. In the 1:4 defeat against Arsenal, Archie Gray, a 15-year-old teenager, was even on the bench.

The two match cancellations after Christmas were unavoidable and should now ease the personnel situation a little. What is clear is that Leeds have been beaten well below their capabilities so far. With the return of several regulars, the prediction of a home win for Leeds against Burnley is also entirely justifiable.

Especially as Marcelo Bielsa has an excellent record against English coaches in home games in the English Premier League. Seven of the nine games so far have been won by “El Loco” from Argentina. A win against Burnley would be enormously important in order to get some relief from the relegation worries.

Predicted Leeds line-up:
Meslier – Dallas, Koch, Ayling, Drameh – Forshaw – Harrison, Roberts, Klich, Raphinha – Gelhardt

Last matches played by Leeds:

Premier League
12/18 2021 – Leeds 1 – 4 Arsenal London

12/14 2021 – Manchester City 7 – 0 Leeds

12/11 2021 – Chelsea London 3 – 2 Leeds

12/05 2021 – Leeds 2 – 2 Brentford

11/30 2021 – Leeds 1 – 0 Crystal Palace

Burnley – Statistics & current form

At last, Burnley were back in the mix and allowed to return to the pitch. For 18 days Sean Dyche’s team was not able to play and now has to play four catch-up games. Ideally, that would see the Clarets climb out of the relegation zone, with the gap to the Hornets from Watford just two points.

Only one win this season

This starting position is absolutely positive, as Burnley have won just one league game this season. At the end of October, promoted Brentford were beaten 3-1 at home to Turf Moor, otherwise Burnley have managed eight draws and conceded seven defeats.

In the last PL game of 2021, Burnley revealed unusual weaknesses, especially down the flanks, and were far from winning a point at Old Trafford Stadium. The only glimmer of hope was Aaron Lennon’s goal.

The veteran was only in the starting line-up due to Jay Rodriguez’s quarantine and finally managed to score a Burnley goal after three scoreless games (with only three shots on goal). Otherwise, however, the Clarets offence remained relatively tame once again.

Four times out of five the first league game was lost

Burnley will have to pick up the points they need in the battle to stay in the league against other teams, though. The crisis-ridden Leeds United team is certainly such an opponent. However, statistics fans should not ignore the fact that Burnley have lost their first league game of the year four times in the last five years. Arguments underlining the prediction on the visitors in Leeds v Burnley are hard to find.

Predicted Burnley line-up:
Hennessey – Taylor, Mee, Tarkowski, Lowton – McNeil, Cork, Westwood, Gudmundsson – Wood, Lennon

Last matches played by Burnley:

Premier League
12/30 2021 – Manchester United 3 – 1 Burnley

12/12 2021 – Burnley 0 – 0 West Ham

12/04 2021 – Newcastle United 1 – 0 Burnley

12/01 2021 – Wolverhampton 0 – 0 Burnley

11/20 2021 – Burnley 3 – 3 Crystal Palace

Leeds – Burnley Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

One of the favourite opponents is visiting Elland Road. Only against Coventry City do the Whites have a better winning percentage (54 percent) than against Burnley. The Whites have won 31 of their 61 league games so far. Leeds have also won six of their last eight home games against the Clarets. The first leg of the current season at the end of August saw a 1-1 draw.

Leeds – Burnley Tip

Lovers of cultivated football should look for something else to do on Sunday afternoon, because this duel will not be a treat by any means. The form of both teams is shockingly weak and accordingly it is to be expected that both teams will take very few risks. The own defence should be stabilised, this will be the motto especially for Leeds after conceding 14 goals in three games recently. A lot of fight and cramp is probably the order of the day, so the forecast for few goals is certainly recommended for Leeds vs. Burnley.

Leeds’ recent enforced break has certainly played into their hands to allow the tight personnel situation to ease a little. With the players available, the focus was also placed on the defence. A slight tendency goes in the direction of the home side due to the higher quality, but even more interesting seems to be the prediction that not both teams will score in Leeds against Burnley. Burnley is one of the weakest offensive lines in the league and therefore odds of over 2.00 are too high.