Will the Packers take the NFC’s top seed?
The Sunday Night Game at the beginning of the year turns into one with a very special rivalry. Only 420 kilometres separate the two cities in the north of the USA – not much by their standards and in football you would say: a derby is on the cards.
This one will be particularly explosive, as both teams still have a lot at stake. The Packers want to get the No.1 seed in the NFC and with it the bye week, the Vikings want to get into the playoffs at the last minute.
The Packers have the better cards, as they only have to win one of their last two games. The Vikings, on the other hand, need to draw their remaining two games to still have a chance at the postseason.
Since Green Bay is also in much better shape with four wins in a row, our prediction for Packers vs. Vikings is a success for the men around star quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have also not lost a single home game this season.
Kickoff of the Sunday Night Game of NFL Match Week 17 is on Monday night at 02:20 in Green Bay. It can be watched live and with German commentary on DAZN.
Green Bay Packers – Statistics & current form
The Packers can (with a little help from the Cardinals) clinch the top seed in the NFC as early as Sunday. It would be the logical consequence of a strong season, except for the very first game of the season, which went completely to shit (3:38 at the Saints).
While all the other teams have had their struggles in between and lost to weaker teams, this has not happened to the Packers yet. There’s also little to suggest they won’t start doing it on Sunday of all days.
Home record Green Bays stunning
One of the key points in the Packers’ favour again this weekend is their home record at Lambeau Field, especially since 2019. Since that time, they have won over 90% of their home games, making them by far the strongest home team in the league.
This season, they have done so again, winning all seven of their home games so far. Their upcoming opponents from Minneapolis, with a 3:5 away record, don’t necessarily have the licence for away wins either.
Packers consistent everywhere, but not top
Somewhat surprisingly, this dominance by the Packers comes when we look at their stats. Neither offensively (25.5 points per game) nor defensively (21.6 opposing points per game) do they rank among the top 10 teams in the NFL. Their great strength is their consistency and avoidance of mistakes.
They are clearly in the lead in the all-important turnover differential with +16. That should make the difference again against the Vikings, especially since they are known for giving games away. For Green Bay vs Minnesota, the odds per Packers are thus worth a more intense look.
Key Players:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Aaron Jones
WR: Davante Adams
TE: Mercedes Lewis
K: Mason Crosby
Minnesota Vikings – stats & recent form
In order to still make the playoffs, the Vikings simply have to win at Lambeau Field now. Nothing easier than that – irony off. Because there’s hardly a stadium where NFL teams have a harder time than there.
Still, there is a glimmer of hope for the Vikings, because the last team to win there was themselves in November last year. They also narrowly won the first battle this season at home 34-31.
Cousins too changeable in his performances
Although the Vikings have a very strong team on paper, they probably won’t make the playoffs in the end. One of the main reasons is quarterback Kirk Cousins. He has a QB rating of 101.3 points over the course of the season, but all that is of no use to him if he fails in the decisive moments.
This makes him the counterpart of Tom Brady, whose stats are even slightly worse, but who is at his best in games when it counts. Cousins always loses the ball exactly when it is deadly. There’s a reason the Vikings have already lost eight one-score games this season.
Adam Thielen drops out
Another setback for Sunday is the absence of Adam Thielen, who will have to undergo surgery, making him unavailable for the rest of the season. That means Justin Jefferson will get even more attention from the Packers defence and have a harder time scoring.
All in all, there’s just too much going against Minnesota to trust them to pull off a surprise here. For Green Bay vs. Minnesota, a bet on the Packers in combination with over-points is our No.1 betting recommendation.
Why over-points? Because both teams are averaging over 25 points and have delivered offensively of late. We feel that the 47.5 total points are clearly too few.
Key Players:
QB: Kirk Cousins
RB: Alexander Mattison
WR: Adam Thielen
WR: Justin Jefferson
K: Greg Joseph
Green Bay Packers – Minnesota Vikings Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The direct comparison is actually the only point that could give the Vikings hope – at least if we only look at the last two duels. They both went to Minnesota.
What the head-to-head matchups also show, however, is that these two teams have been hammering each other for points lately. Since 2020, the average has been 64.0, which also clearly points to over-points on Sunday, especially since the betting companies are only putting up 47.5.
So for Green Bay against Minnesota, both the Packers and over odds are options. In fact, put them together and you get a really strong value that we can take advantage of with a clear conscience.
Green Bay Packers – Minnesota Vikings Tip
The Packers are the clear favourites. They have a lead of between six and seven points at the bookmakers, which is quite a board, especially since the Vikings do not lose their games all high. That makes handicap betting on Green Bay a bit risky.
That’s why we switch to a combo bet as a recommendation. Green Bay + Over-Points is the most profitable bet before the Packers vs. Vikings match-up, as it also protects a close game.
Alternatively, betting odds on over-points are also an option between Green Bay and Minnesota. We have already discussed the last points festivals and only the very cold temperatures (up to -11°) could be a bit of a problem here.
