Will the Reds benefit from the Foxes’ defensive frailty?
It was only a week ago that Leicester and Liverpool faced each other in the quarter-finals of the English EFL Cup. Despite the Foxes leading 3-1 at one stage, the Reds equalised in the last second and eventually prevailed on penalties. On Tuesday evening, the sensational 2016 champions will now get the chance for revenge. This time in the Premier League and in front of a home crowd.
The omens are not good, however, especially as coach Brendan Rodgers’ team suffered a heavy defeat at Manchester City on Boxing Day, while LFC were not even in action. Consequently, it is no surprise that the odds are swinging in the direction of Klopp’s side ahead of the Leicester vs Liverpool clash.
Caution should still be exercised from the point of view of the team from the Beatles City, after all, the Foxes won the last direct encounter to date in February. The last time the Foxes won back-to-back Premier League matches against LFC was in 1999, and more than 20 years later, we would rather rule out such a scenario, which is why our prediction ahead of the Leicester v Liverpool match goes in the direction of the visitors. At the same time, however, we expect goals on both sides!
Leicester – Statistics & current form
Leicester City are playing a disappointing season so far. The Foxes were unable to stave off elimination from the Europa League, meaning they will only continue in the Conference League in the spring. Even sadder, however, is the performance so far in the domestic league, where Rodgers’ side have collected a meagre 22 points after 17 matchdays. Tenth place and an already considerable gap to the international ranks are the logical consequence.
The number of goals conceded in particular makes it clear what the problem is. Keeper Schmeichel has already had to make 33 saves in the Premier League. Only Leeds United and Norwich City, who are both fighting against relegation, have conceded more goals. Only on Boxing Day did they suffer a heavy 6-3 defeat at Manchester City, which once again exposed their defensive deficits.
Vulnerable defence becomes sticking point
At the same time, however, it became equally clear that the offensive has the quality to produce dangerous scenes at any time. This is further underlined by the 30 goals scored, which is a top five figure in a league comparison.
In games involving Leicester, there is thus a built-in guarantee of goals. Only in five of 17 matches did both teams fail to score at least one goal. In the last six games, the over 2.5 was always broken. On average, almost five goals were scored per match during this period. Therefore, our first option between Leicester and Liverpool is to bet that both teams will score.
The statistic that the 2016 champions have only lost the last league match of a calendar year twice in the last ten years also gives us hope for a positive result on Tuesday evening. The personnel situation is less pleasing, as coach Rodgers will have to improvise once again due to positive tests, among other things. Especially defensively, with Söyüncü, Justin, Fofana, Evans or Pereira, some options are missing, which virtually invites LFC to attack.
Predicted Leicester line-up:
Schmeichel; Daley-Campbell, Amartey, Vestergaard, Castagne; Ndidi, Tielemans, Soumare; Perez, Vardy, Maswanhise
Last matches played by Leicester:
Premier League
12/26 2021 – Manchester City 6 – 3 Leicester
Carabao Cup
12/22 2021 – Liverpool FC (5)3 – 3(4) Leicester
Premier League
12/12 2021 – Leicester 4 – 0 Newcastle United
Europa League Grp. C
12/09 2021 – SSC Napoli 3 – 2 Leicester
Premier League
12/05 2021 – Aston Villa 2 – 1 Leicester
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
Normally, Jürgen Klopp is a coach who prefers games to training sessions. Nevertheless, the former Dortmund man will not have been entirely unhappy that the Boxing Day encounter against Leeds United could not take place due to various positive tests at the opposition. After the success in the quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup, where “Kloppo” fielded a C-team, the Reds have now had a few days to prepare for the away match at the King Power Stadium.
This is one of the reasons why the odds favour the visitors from Anfield before the match between Leicester and Liverpool. Not only have LFC not lost the last Premier League match of a calendar year for seven seasons, they have also won six of their last seven games. There was not a single defeat in November and December. In terms of form, the advantage is clearly with the Merseyside side.
Klopp welcomes some players back
In addition, the fact that games with Mo Salah and Co. regularly offer spectacle is made clear by an interesting statistic. Only in four of 17 LFC matches were there not at least two goals scored, despite the fact that keeper Alisson Becker is a real benchwarmer with a total of ten clean sheets.
Nevertheless, we do not believe in a “nil to nil” on Tuesday evening, especially as the Reds recently conceded two goals against Tottenham and also conceded three goals against the Foxes in the EFL Cup. If the “BTS” is still too risky for you, you can go for the Over 2.5 – although the odds will be lower – and the Over 3.5 is also an exciting option given the offensive strength of both teams.
In terms of absences, the situation has also calmed down somewhat. Van Dijk, Jones, Thiago and Fabinho are all back in training after their infections. However, it is doubtful whether each of these players is at 100% and will be used accordingly. Elliott, Adrian, Phillips, Origi and the suspended Robertson will definitely be missing.
Predicted Liverpool line-up:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Tsimikas; Henderson, Fabinho, Keita; Salah, Jota, Mane
Last matches played by Liverpool:
Carabao Cup
12/22 2021 – Liverpool FC (5)3 – 3(4) Leicester
Premier League
12/19 2021 – Tottenham 2 – 2 Liverpool FC
12/16 2021 – Liverpool FC 3 – 1 Newcastle United
12/11 2021 – Liverpool FC 1 – 0 Aston Villa
Champions League Grp. B
12/07 2021 – AC Milan 1 – 2 Liverpool FC
Leicester – Liverpool Tip
On matchday 20, it comes to a highly anticipated duel between two former champions. Leicester receives Liverpool. Lower betting odds are offered on an away win for the Reds – and for good reason. On the one hand, Klopp’s team is in great form and has won almost every match in the last two months. On the other hand, things are not going well at all for the Foxes.
To make matters worse, Brendan Rodgers will be without many important players on Tuesday night, especially in defence. But since they are already extremely vulnerable and have already conceded 33 goals to date (most recently six against Manchester City), it can be assumed that the spectators at the King Power Stadium will once again see a goal or two.
Nevertheless, we do not believe that the favourites will win “to-nil”, especially as Leicester have scored at least three goals against LFC in their two most recent direct encounters. Offensively, the 2016 champions have enough quality to cause problems for the Reds defence, so we also believe the hosts can score at least one goal.
Consequently, our first option between Leicester and Liverpool is to bet on both teams to score.
