Will Arsenal take advantage of Leeds’ shortage of players?

Football lean fare is on the agenda in the English Premier League on the fourth weekend of Advent. Already half of the scheduled matches have had to be postponed due to the dominating omicron variety. Currently, only two matches are scheduled for Saturday. The evening match will be a duel with a completely different starting point. The matchday during the week could not have been more different for Leeds and Arsenal. Marcelo Bielsa suffered the heaviest defeat of his coaching career, while Arsenal continued their upward trend of recent weeks with a derby win against West Ham United and are now even in a Champions League starting position.

The Whites from Leeds were a real asset to the league last season, but have been brought back down to earth this autumn. Leeds are in the middle of a relegation battle and had not only revealed big problems in the defeat against the Citizens. Arsenal could cap a perfect week at Elland Road, having won both their previous games without conceding a goal. Bookmakers are offering odds of just under 2.00 on the visitors to win between Leeds and Arsenal.

The Whites from Leeds were a real asset to the league last season, but have been brought back down to earth this autumn. Leeds are in the middle of a relegation battle and had not only revealed big problems in the defeat against the Citizens. Arsenal could cap a perfect week at Elland Road, having won both their previous games without conceding a goal. Bookmakers are offering odds of just under 2.00 on the visitors to win between Leeds and Arsenal.

Leeds – Statistics & current form

The darned second year – it has often been shown that a promoted team gets into big trouble in the second season. With Leeds, this was not really to be expected to this extent, because the Bielsa eleven played refreshing football and presented themselves as a clear enrichment for the league. But there is not much of that in 2021/22 and in the meantime the Whites have to deal with the leg-high relegation battle.

Extreme personnel problems aggravate the situation

These days, the Premier League is making headlines with countless match cancellations/postponements. Many clubs are running out of players – a situation that is also the case with Leeds. However, there are not countless cases of infection at the Whites, but the injury devil strikes again and again. On Thursday, the Argentine coach lamented that he is down to nine players with professional status and for the life of him he doesn’t know who he will send on the field against the Gunners.

During the week, Leeds had to replace Daniel James and Jamie Shackleton with injuries. In addition, left-back Junior Firpo received his fifth yellow card and will therefore also be unavailable. The same applies to top stars Kalvin Philipps, Patrick Bamford, Rodrygo and Pascal Struijk. Especially the absence of Bamford weighs heavily, because without him the offensive department is much weaker (1.6 goals on average with him, 0.9 without him). The only ray of hope is that German Robin Koch is fit again after a long injury break.

Demonstration against the Skyblues

The myriad of injuries have resulted in a drop in quality that is clearly evident in the results. The negative spiral goes on and on and on and on Tuesday night it reached its temporary, sad climax. In a 7-0 defeat, Bielsa complained afterwards that he had seen “nothing of value” and saw a disappointing performance against an opponent who did not even have to play outstandingly.

The Whites’ form is appalling at the moment and given the personnel situation, the odds on betting on the Gunners for Leeds against Arsenal seem far too high.

Predicted Leeds lineup:
Meslier – Dallas, Llorente, Ayling, Drameh – Forshaw, Klich – Harrison, Roberts, Raphinha – Gelhardt

Last matches played by Leeds:

Premier League
12/14 2021 – Manchester City 7 – 0 Leeds

12/11 2021 – Chelsea London 3 – 2 Leeds

12/05 2021 – Leeds 2 – 2 Brentford

11/30 2021 – Leeds 1 – 0 Crystal Palace

11/27 2021 – Brighton 0 – 0 Leeds

Arsenal – Statistics & current form

Quiz question – who remembers the last time Arsenal held a place in the Premier League top four? The side that spent years in the Champions League under Arsene Wenger ended a 425-day drought with a derby win over West Ham on Wednesday night. The Gunners are back in a top-four Champions League spot for the first time since October 16, 2020.

The young guns are setting it right

Mikel Arteta has had his back against the wall several times in recent months, but has always managed to turn things around. The current development is mainly due to the fact that Arsenal finally have players on the pitch again who take their hearts in their hands and act in a carefree manner.

In the 2-0 home win against West Ham (which makes Arsenal the best home team in the league together with Manchester City), the two U21 players Emile Smith Rowe and Gabriel Martinelli scored. Ten of Arsenal’s 23 goals this season have come from U21 players. No other PL team has a higher figure in this statistic. Gradually, the future prospects at Arsenal seem to be positive again. In particular, the duo of Emile Smith-Rowe and Bukayo Saka understand each other blindly. The two players have already provided each other with six goals, only Cristiano Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney have been able to record more mutual assists in a season as an U21 duo (eight).

Lately disappointing away

Not all that glitters is gold at Arsenal, but the development can definitely be described as positive. It will now be important not only to show the strong performances at home in the Emirates Stadium, but also to finally be able to convince away from home again. The last three away games in the Premier League all ended in defeat.

While Arsenal have scored 17 goals in nine home games, they have only scored six times in eight away games. Against Marcelo Bielsa’s team, which is severely short of players, it must be called a must-win in view of the club’s CL ambitions. Due to the home side’s personnel situation, the handicap prediction is also a good option between Leeds and Arsenal.

Predicted line-up of Arsenal:
Ramsdale – Tierney, Gabriel, White, Tomiyasu – Saka, Partey, Xhaka, Martinelli – Odegaard – Lacazette

Last matches played by Arsenal:

Premier League
12/15 2021 – Arsenal London 2 – 0 West Ham

12/11 2021 – Arsenal London 3 – 0 Southampton

12/06 2021 – Everton 2 – 1 Arsenal London

12/02 2021 – Manchester United 3 – 2 Arsenal London

11/27 2021 – Arsenal London 2 – 0 Newcastle United

Leeds – Arsenal Direct comparison / H2H record

The two games could not have been more different last season. At Elland Road in Leeds, the two teams neutralised each other for the entire duration of the game and there was virtually no danger of scoring. The goalless draw was the logical consequence. At the Emirates Stadium in London, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang shone and was mainly responsible for the 4:0 lead in the meantime with his hat-trick. Leeds did not give up and were able to reduce the score to 4:2.

Leeds – Arsenal Tip

December traditionally poses personnel problems for English teams, after all, there are countless games on the agenda and de facto no breathers. A broad squad is therefore important anyway. In December 2021, however, the situation is even more extreme and many teams are running on fumes. Leeds are plagued by injuries and in view of the many absences, the prediction on the visitors is the logical choice for the duel Leeds vs Arsenal.

Although Arsenal have lost three in a row away from home and Leeds are without defeat in five home games, Arsenal have not lost to the Whites for ten games in the competition, conceded more than one goal at Elland Road in 1993 and have performed well recently. Based on the performances during the week, the prediction on the handicap win for the visitors is also considered very interesting between Leeds and Arsenal. The ratio between winning possibility and probability of occurrence is rated as very positive.