Do the Pats remain the team of the hour?
The top game on NFL Matchday 13 takes place on Monday when the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots. With 7-4 and 8-4 wins respectively, both teams still have a chance to make the playoffs as the best team in the AFC.
However, the odds are slightly higher for the Pats. Not only because they have one more win under their belt, but also because their form is better than that of all the other NFL teams – conference-wide.
This very fact makes them the favourites for us in the Monday Night Game, even if the game is in Buffalo. However, the Patriots are more comfortable away than at home anyway and have won all five of their games in foreign stadiums so far.
The Bills, on the other hand, have already lost twice at home and so for Buffalo vs. New England our prediction is a continuation of the Pats series, who should narrowly come out on top in the end.
Kickoff of the Monday Night Game is at 02:15 on Tuesday night in Buffalo. The game will be broadcast live by DAZN.
Buffalo Bills – Statistics & current form
The Bills have alternated wins and losses in each of their last six games. In the same period, the Pats have won six times, which is why the betting base has Buffalo’s favourite status (from the bookies) on shaky ground.
Even their 31-6 away win in New Orleans cannot be considered a big exclamation point when we look at the Saints’ performances in recent weeks. So it’s unclear where Buffalo actually stands performance-wise at the moment.
Allen not really in the flow anymore
The inconsistency of the Bills can also be seen in the stats of Josh Allen. He now has ten interceptions, seven of which have come in the last four games – two each against the Jaguars, Colts and Saints.
That’s a worrying development, especially since Monday’s game is against the best defence in the league and the one that has caught the most interceptions to date (19). It would be very surprising if Allen can hold his own.
Matchup doesn’t suit Buffalo
There’s another point that argues against a Bills win on Monday: their running game, or rather their running backs. If we subtract Allen’s rushing yards, they’ve been very weak of late. Against Jacksonville, Singletary and Moss combined for just 22 rushing yards – a minus record.
That shouldn’t be enough against this very strong Pats defence, which is why we clearly favour a bet on New England for the Bills against the Patriots – if only from a value point of view.
Key Players:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Dawson Knox
K: Tyler Bass
New England Patriots – stats & current form
The Patriots just don’t let up. While many pundits had said “Yeah, but it was just the Falcons” after the 25-0 loss to the Falcons, even those skeptics were finally convinced last Sunday against the Titans.
The way the Pats played down the best team in the AFC to date was worthy of a No. 1 seed. The Ravens still hold this title, but we can well imagine that New England can pass them with their current form.
Offense wins Games – Defence wins Championships
This beautiful quote about the importance of defenses can be perfectly applied to the Patriots. Although they are always convincing with their offence, their biggest trump card is their defence, which is once again in top form.
With only 15.8 points conceded per game, they are already in first place in all NFL defence stats, and their defence also leads the rankings in interceptions (19). Only in forced fumbles do they still have some catching up to do with six.
Mac Jones the perfect Brady 2.0
It is becoming more and more apparent that Mac Jones is indeed a carbon copy of Tom Brady. Not quite as good on his feet, but with an incredible overview and understanding of the game – and currently even with the stronger arm.
This combination of a secure captain, great coaching and a strong defence is very difficult to crack, which is why we would clearly prefer the odds per New England for Bills vs. Pats.
Key Players:
QB: Mac Jones
RB: Damien Harris
WR: Nelson Agholor
TE: Jonnu Smith
K: Nick Folk
Buffalo Bills – New England Patriots Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The last few years of this rivalry were, of course, all about Tom Brady. He loved to play against Buffalo and so the record of the last ten years is also 15:5 for the New England Patriots.
However, the last two games in 2020 were won by the Bills. However, this season’s Pats team is not even remotely comparable to the one from a year ago, which is why we still see the Pats as the favourites.
Thus, a bet on New England is just as possible for the Bills against the Patriots as one on the Pats scoring more than 19.5 points. They have clearly exceeded this number in all of their last eight games.
Buffalo Bills – New England Patriots Pick
The Pats’ defence is currently clearing out everything that comes their way. With the Bills looking slightly rattled, we reckon they won’t find a means to pass here either.
At least to pass in such a way to win in the end. Because we trust New England to score at least 20-25 points in each game, rather even more. That’s why the odds on the Pats in Buffalo vs. New England are our clear betting recommendation.
Betting alternatives include betting on a lot of Pats points as well as on over-points. The 41.5 bet should be exceeded on these good offenses, even if the two best defenses are facing each other here.
