Does Leeds sustain their upward trend?
On matchday 15 of the 2021/22 Premier League, the clash between last season’s best promoted team and this season’s current best promoted team will take place at Elland Road. More precisely, it is the duel between Leeds and Brentford. The two teams are separated by only one point before the direct clash on Sunday afternoon. Surprisingly, the “Bees” from London are ahead of the “Whites” from Leeds.
The Bielsa eleven is still struggling this season to build on last year’s outstanding season and currently only finds itself at the back of midfield. During the week, however, they managed an important 1-0 home win against Crystal Palace and with another home win, Leeds could move forward again. The home side have a big advantage, because in the English week Leeds were already in action on Tuesday, Brentford only on Thursday evening. The much longer regeneration time certainly plays into the home side’s favour. The bookmakers are currently offering odds of just under 2.00 for the Leeds vs Brentford clash.
As a Leeds fan, this is almost a must-win game, as Bielsa’s side face top opponents (Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool) in their remaining December games. The match at Elland Road kicks off on Sunday afternoon at 3pm.
Leeds – Statistics & current form
For stats freaks, the Whites’ narrow 1-0 win over Crystal Palace on Tuesday night was no real surprise. For the fifth time in a row, Leeds won a Premier League game on Tuesday night. This time, however, the team took their time, as a 94th-minute handball penalty provided the decider. Brazilian Raphinha took responsibility and scored his sixth goal of the season to secure their third win of the season. For Leeds it was already the second penalty in injury time in the last six games. Nice comparison – previously the Whites had only converted two penalties in minute 90+ in 514 Premier League games.
In addition, Leeds goalkeeper Ilhan Meslier went goal-less for the second game in a row (the third time this season). The 21-year-old Frenchman will set a Premier League record on Sunday as he becomes the youngest goalkeeper in PL history to record 50 appearances. He could also play his part in helping the Whites go three Premier League games in a row without conceding a goal for the first time since August 2002. Between Leeds and Brentford, betting that both teams don’t score is certainly a good option
Bamford are on the verge of a comeback
Compared to last season, the biggest difference for Leeds is in the number of goals scored. An average of 1.63 goals were scored last year, currently this figure is 0.92 goals at less than one goal per game (13 goals in 14 games). The Whites have been hit particularly hard by the absence of top scorer Patrick Bamford through injury. On Monday evening, the England team striker made his comeback after overcoming injury in the U23s and could be back on the pitch against the Bees on Sunday for the first time in the Premier League since 17 September. Only German Robin Koch will be unavailable to Marcelo Bielsa through injury, but otherwise the home side can draw from a full complement.
Predicted Leeds line-up:
Meslier – Struijk, Cooper, Llorente, Shackleton – Phillips – James, Forshaw, Klich, Raphinha – Roberts
Last matches played by Leeds:
Premier League
11/30 2021 – Leeds 1 – 0 Crystal Palace
11/27 2021 – Brighton 0 – 0 Leeds
11/21 2021 – Tottenham 2 – 1 Leeds
11/07 2021 – Leeds 1 – 1 Leicester
10/31 2021 – Norwich 1 – 2 Leeds
Brentford – Statistics & current form
The promotion euphoria is gradually subsiding for the Bees from Brentford. After the long-awaited return to the English football top flight, the team of Danish head coach Thomas Frank could look back on a very strong start to the season. Only two of the first seven league games were lost. The pendulum has since swung and Brentford have conceded five defeats in their last seven Premier League games.
Defence with problems
After goalkeeper David Raya kept his box clean in the first two games, the promoted team conceded at least one goal in ten of the last twelve league games. The stability in the defence has been lost a little lately. In addition, Brentford will have to do without the aforementioned Raya in the coming months, who had to undergo knee surgery.
Raya will be replaced by his compatriot Alvaro Fernandez. The 23-year-old has now played five Premier League games and conceded ten goals. However, he is not to blame for the negative run. He was not at fault in the 2-0 derby defeat to Tottenham on Thursday night. Brentford had more possession but could not create any real danger at any point. However, the weaker results cannot be dismissed and accordingly the high odds on the visitors are justified in Leeds vs Brentford.
Toney always provides danger
Despite recent results, the interim conclusion at Brentford remains positive, with twelfth place in the table a satisfactory result. The club is aware that staying in the league is the top priority. The big hope for this is the 25-year-old attacker Ivan Toney. He already shot Brentford into the Premier League with his goals last season. In 2021/22 he has already collected six points (four goals, two assists). Little wonder, as he has his feet in almost every offensive action. Toney himself fired 22 percent of all shots (34 of 157). Only Brighton’s Leandro Trossard has a higher shooting percentage at 23 per cent.
Predicted Brentford line-up:
Fernandez – Jansson, Pinnock, Goode – Henry, Nörgaard, Onyeka, Janelt, Canos – Toney, Mbeumo
Last matches played by Brentford:
Premier League
12/02 2021 – Tottenham 2 – 0 Brentford
11/28 2021 – Brentford 1 – 0 Everton
11/20 2021 – Newcastle United 3 – 3 Brentford
11/06 2021 – Brentford 1 – 2 Norwich
10/30 2021 – Burnley 3 – 1 Brentford
Leeds – Brentford Direct comparison / H2H balance
The last time this clash took place in the English football top flight was in the 1946/47 season. Much more relevant to the first Premier League match between the two teams are the recent duels in the Championship. Between 2014/15 and 2019/20, both teams featured in the tough second division, strikingly, in those twelve games between Leeds and Brentford, the betting on the away win was successful only once (in 2014/15, Brentford won 1-0 at the Whites). This was also Leeds’ only home defeat in their last 14 games against the Bees (seven wins, six draws).
Leeds – Brentford Tip
The visitors are ahead of Leeds in the current Premier League table, but recent results are in favour of the home side. Bielsa’s side have been on an upward trajectory, while Brentford have suffered a number of setbacks of late. In addition, Leeds can count on the return of Patrick Bamford (at least a wild card appearance should be possible), which is another argument that underlines the prediction on the home side in Leeds vs Brentford.
Other points that underline the home side’s role as favourites are the significantly longer regeneration period and the direct comparison. There is really not much to say against Marcelo Bielsa’s Whites, so the recommended bet for the clash between Leeds and Brentford is a home win. For this, a stake of six units is placed. An offensive spectacle is not to be expected, however, and accordingly bets on the Under 2.5 or “Both teams score? No” are also a good option.
