Who will make the step out of the crisis?

This weekend’s Saturday night game in the English Premier League will not involve a team that was in international action during the week. Therefore, the duel cannot necessarily be described as a “top game”. Brighton and Leeds will face each other at the AMEX Stadium from 18:30. Two teams that are not necessarily brimming with confidence after their recent results.

The home side have made a flying start to the new season but have now gone seven league games without a win. Only bottom side Newcastle have a longer run without a league win. Marcelo Bielsa’s visitors are struggling this season and have yet to build on last year’s strong campaign. Leeds are currently 17th, just above the relegation zone

Despite their run of seven games without a win, Brighton are considered relatively clear favourites against Leeds according to current odds. The betting odds on this are just over 2.00, while a Whites success will entice almost four times the stake.

Brighton – Statistics & current form

At the beginning of the season, the Seagulls stunned quite a few football experts. Brighton made a furious start to the new season and had twelve points on the credit side after five games, only losing the home game against Everton FC with 0:2.

Without a win for seven games

However, things have not gone to plan for head coach Graham Potter’s side since then. The 2-1 home win over Leicester on matchday five was the last victory for Brighton & Hove Albion. The team has failed to win seven games in a row, with only two defeats, but Brighton are treading water with five points shared. Only last-placed Newcastle have an even longer winless streak (twelve).

The main reason for the weaker results is the defence. In the first eight league games, Spanish goalkeeper Roberto Sanchez only had to make five saves. In the last four games, on the other hand, he has conceded an average of 2.3 goals per game.

Under 2.5 is a good bet

In their first two Premier League years, Brighton were still a team that practised the kick-and-rush. Since Potter took over, the playful aspect has come to the fore. However, there is a great emphasis on defence.

This is always evident when looking at the goal conceded statistics. Last year, no team ranked 9-20 conceded fewer goals than the Potters, who finished the year in only 16th place. Accordingly, bets on the under 2.5 very often offer themselves. This season, only four games ended with at least three goals. For Brighton vs. Leeds, the forecast on another Under 2.5 is recommended.

Predicted line-up of Brighton:
Sanchez – Duffy, Dunk, Webster – Cucurella, Bissouma, Tall, Moder, Lamptey – Trossard, Lalllana

Last Brighton games:

Premier League
11/20 2021 – Aston Villa 2 – 0 Brighton

11/06 2021 – Brighton 1 – 1 Newcastle United

10/30 2021 – Liverpool FC 2 – 2 Brighton

Carabao Cup
10/27 2021 – Leicester (4)2 – 2(2) Brighton

Premier League
10/23 2021 – Brighton 1 – 4 Manchester City

Leeds – Statistics & current form

The ninth place in the table mentioned above was achieved by Leeds United last season. The promoted team presented itself as a real enrichment for the Premier League and delivered some spectacular games. An average of 3.05 goals was the third highest in 2020/21.

Leeds a specialist in squandering leads

This season, however, Bielsa’s side are still struggling to find their feet, with Leeds winning just two of their 12 league games so far. The fact that Leeds have great problems defending a lead is particularly striking. Leeds have already had to give away ten points after taking the lead. In total, there are only eleven points after twelve league games, which means 17th place in the table.

In the whole of last season, the Whites had to concede just six points after taking the lead. As a result of the many blown leads, betting on the “both to score” has been the right choice in nine of twelve games this season. Late on Saturday afternoon, however, Burnley v Leeds calls for caution with this prediction. Given the poor form on both sides, both teams are likely to focus on their own defence first.

Bamford will be missing

Twelve goals currently equate to an average of one goal per game. Yet the Bielsa eleven have already fired 175 shots so far and thus only 6.9 per cent of the shots on goal have been successful. Compared to the rest of the Premier League teams, this is the second lowest percentage. Only Norwich has converted even fewer shots (5.8 %).

One reason for this is certainly the absence of Patrick Bamford. The England team player was the life insurance last year with 17 goals and eight assists, but he is currently missing since matchday six due to an ankle injury.

Predicted Leeds line-up:
Meslier – Struijk, Cooper, Philips, Llorente – Forshaw – Harrison, James, Klich, Dallas – Gelhardt

Last matches played by Leeds:

Premier League
11/21 2021 – Tottenham 2 – 1 Leeds

11/07 2021 – Leeds 1 – 1 Leicester

10/31 2021 – Norwich 1 – 2 Leeds

Carabao Cup
10/26 2021 – Arsenal London 2 – 0 Leeds

Premier League
10/23 2021 – Leeds 1 – 1 Wolverhampton

Brighton – Leeds Direct Comparison / H2H Record

The term “favourite opponent” is absolutely justified in this clash. In the last nine league games between Brighton and Leeds, betting on a Seagulls win has been crowned with success eight times. Brighton & Hove Albion are particularly strong at home, as the last five games at the AMEX Stadium have all ended with a win for the hosts. Leeds’ last win at Brighton dates back to November 2009, when they were still in the third-tier League One.

Brighton – Leeds Tip

The two teams are a bit apart in the current table, but in the form table of the last six games, the visitors from Leeds are even ahead of the home side. The direct comparison in the past is certainly an advantage for the Seagulls, however, the odds of just over 2.00 for the bet on the home win are not recommended for Brighton vs. Leeds.

The starting situation for this game is by no means as clear as the bookmakers make it out to be. Leeds still has some problems in 2021/22, but is at least on par with Brighton & Hove Albion. Therefore, a Draw-No-Bet 2 bet on Brighton against Leeds is certainly an option. However, the chances of success are even better with a forecast on the under 2.5. Brighton have a strong defence and can count on Roberto Sanchez in goal again after overcoming his red suspension.