Does frustrated BVB show a reaction?

The biggest loser of the Champions League matchday during the week is definitely Borussia Dortmund. For the reigning German Cup winners, the dream of reaching the last 16 was prematurely shattered on Wednesday evening after a painful 3-1 defeat in Lisbon. The sting of disappointment runs deep, although coach Marco Rose’s team does not have long to mourn. The next important task in the Bundesliga already awaits on Saturday.

On the positive side, it is worth mentioning that VfL Wolfsburg is one of BVB’s favourite opponents. The Lower Saxons have not been able to win any of the last twelve meetings with the Black and Yellows and have even lost all of their last six home games. This is one of the reasons why lower odds are being offered on the visitors’ three-goal win in the matchday 13 clash between Wolfsburg and Dortmund.

In view of the shaky self-confidence after the CL exit and the still uncompensated absence of Erling Haaland, bets on a Borussia win are not necessarily recommended.

Instead, we expect, as has often been the case with BVB lately, a competitive duel between two teams on an equal footing, in which nuances will decide victory and defeat. We are not expecting many goals either, so it might make sense to predict a low-scoring encounter before the Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund match.

Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form

Not only Borussia Dortmund, but also VfL Wolfsburg had to swallow a bitter pill in the top flight during the week. The team lost 0:2 in Sevilla and thus slid into an unfavourable starting position before the last CL matchday in a fortnight. However, the Green-Whites still have the chance to advance in their own hands. They “only” need a home win against Lille.

But before that, the Wolves would like to continue the upward trend in the Bundesliga under their new coach. With Florian Kohfeldt on the sidelines, last year’s fourth-placed team is still unbeaten at national level. After two wins against Leverkusen (2:0) and Augsburg (1:0), the ex-Bremer in the service of the Lower Saxons had to settle for a 2:2 draw in Bielefeld.

Wolfsburg rely on a stable defence at home

Once again, Wolfsburg presented themselves more unstable away than in front of their home crowd. This thesis can be proven numerically by the fact that they have conceded a quarter more goals away than at home so far. Koen Casteels, on the other hand, has already made three clean sheets in the VfL box at home. In five of the six home games he has played (3-1-2), a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through.

On Saturday, the Green-Whites will probably again take a cautious approach. On the one hand, out of respect for the opponent, against whom the Wolves have not scored in their last nine direct duels. On the other hand, however, also due to the fact that all three home victories so far have come by the narrowest of all results, a 1:0.

In terms of personnel, coach Kohfeldt currently has one or two worry lines on his forehead. For example, regular goalkeeper Casteels is not available due to a positive test, nor are the long-term injured Bialek, Schlager and William. Renato Steffen’s deployment is also questionable. Instead, hopes are pinned on youngster Lukas Nmecha, who has scored in each of his last three Bundesliga games for the former champions.

Predicted Wolfsburg line-up:
Pervan – Lacroix, Guilavogui, Brooks – R. Baku, Vranckx, Arnold, Paulo Otavio – Lukebakio, L. Nmecha – Weghorst

Last matches played by Wolfsburg:

Champions League Grp. G
11/23 2021  – Sevilla 2 – 0 Vfl Wolfsburg

1st Bundesliga
11/20 2021 – Arminia Bielefeld 2 – 2 Vfl Wolfsburg

Friendly club matches
11/10 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 1 – 3 Hansa Rostock

1st Bundesliga
11/06 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 1 – 0 Augsburg

Champions League Grp. G
11/02 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 2 – 1 Salzburg

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

For any Borussia Dortmund supporter, Wednesday night’s elimination from the Champions League was hard to take. Although BVB had made the best possible start to the group stage with two wins, it is already clear before the last matchday that the black and yellows will not be able to catch up with Sporting Lisbon and Ajax Amsterdam and will therefore be playing in the UEFA Europa League next spring.

It will be interesting to see how quickly coach Marco Rose’s team can get back on track and recover from the shock of the trip to Portugal. Looking at the standings, the reigning cup winners cannot afford any slip-ups on the national stage, and Dortmund’s chances of winning the championship are absolutely intact at the moment. Borussia are just one point behind leaders and record champions FC Bayern in the table.

Dortmund away without punch

BVB owes this promising starting position in particular to its outstanding record at home. Away from home, on the other hand, things have not really gone well so far. In five games away from home, the Black and Yellows have suffered all three defeats this season, losing at Freiburg, Gladbach and RB Leipzig. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that the three-goal mark was never exceeded in any of the defeats.

In general, the average number of goals scored in matches involving Borussia has suffered greatly due to Haaland’s injury. Only in one of the six games without the Norwegian wonder striker were more than three goals scored. The Rose eleven would definitely do well to secure the far from explosive offensive with a more stable defence. The logical consequence is the increased likelihood of under-matches.

Rose running out of personnel options

Now to follow all the facts and stats, it might be of interest to check the odds between Wolfsburg and Dortmund for the combined bet on double chance X2 and a maximum of three goals in the course of the match.

In terms of injury problems, the Dortmund head coach is certainly not to be envied at the moment. Besides Haaland, Guerreiro, Hazard, Morey, Moukoko, Schmelzer, Reyna and Wolf are also unavailable. Marco Rose may have to resort to the much-criticised left-back Schulz again. Compared to the Lisbon defeat, Dahoud, Can and Hummels are candidates for the starting eleven.

Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Kobel – Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, N. Schulz – Can – Bellingham, Dahoud – Reus, Brandt – Malen

Last matches played by Dortmund:

Champions League Grp. C
11/24 2021 – Sporting CP 3 – 1 Borussia Dortmund

1st Bundesliga
11/20 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 VfB Stuttgart

11/06 2021 – RB Leipzig 2 – 1 Borussia Dortmund

Champions League Grp. C
11/03 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 3 Ajax Amsterdam

1st Bundesliga
10/30 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 1. FC Köln

Wolfsburg – Dortmund Tip

During the week, Wolfsburg and Dortmund suffered bitter setbacks in the Champions League. While the Wolves can still dream of reaching the last 16, BVB can concentrate exclusively on the Bundesliga in the remaining games in the 2021 calendar year.

The Black and Yellows will be looking to make amends this Saturday and record their tenth win on matchday 13 in the German top flight. The remarkable record against VfL speaks in favour of Rose’s charges. Borussia has not lost to the Lower Saxons in twelve first league matches. Nine times in a row, the Green-Whites have not even scored a goal of their own. The last six games at the Volkswagen Arena have also all gone to the reigning cup winners.

Despite this, we are refraining from betting in favour of Marco Reus and Co between Wolfsburg and Dortmund. Instead, we are leaning towards a bet on a relatively low number of goals. This assessment is based on the one hand on the fact that BVB, without Haaland, no longer has the offensive power on the pitch, but seems more stable defensively. On the other hand, however, it is also due to the good VfL defence, which has kept its clean sheet in three of six home games.

All in all, the betting odds on the combination “X2 & under 3.5” between Wolfsburg and Dortmund show an exciting value. The Westphalians will pick up at least one point, and there will also be a maximum of three goals to be seen.