Will the Cowboys get the Thanksgiving win?
Thanksgiving Time is Cowboys Time, because for decades America’s Team has traditionally played on this dinner-time holiday – preferably with turkey. This year, the Boys host the Las Vegas Raiders at home.
This is not exactly a crisis duel, but after two pretty nasty defeats in the last three games, the house is in a bad way in Dallas, too. Even the convincing victory against Atlanta could not change that.
The situation is even worse for the Las Vegas Raiders, who have now lost three in a row, the last two of them by a relatively clear final score. The duel with the Cowboys is just what they need – they rarely lose to them by a large margin.
Since the Raiders have only lost by more than one score difference once since 1998, we don’t expect that to happen on Thursday either. So for Dallas vs. Vegas, our prediction is a Cowboys win, but not by too much.
Kickoff of the Thanksgiving game from NFL Week 11 is on Thursday night at 22.30 and it can be watched live on ProSieben or on DAZN.
Dallas Cowboys – Statistics & current form
The Cowboys don’t make betting easy this year – especially not in the last few weeks. They have alternated nasty defeats with great successes. Is it now the turn of another clear success on Thursday?
With their home strength, that could happen, but they are lacking numerous weapons. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is still on the Covid list and CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott are also banged up. The latter, however, should be able to play again against Vegas.
Cowboys’ receiver corps severely weakened
The impact of Cooper’s absence alone was evident Sunday in Kansas City, when Dallas put just nine measly points on the scoreboard without him. Against one of the weakest defenses in the league up to that point.
Should Lamb also be out now (it looks like he will be), this would mean a huge weakening, because Michael Gallup is also far from being back at 100% after his long injury break. On Sunday, despite Cooper’s absence, he managed just 44 yards.
Defence currently better than the offence
So you can see a somewhat strange picture with the Boys at the moment. Their defence, which until last year was the laughing stock par excellence, is stronger than their offence in many games. With 21.4 points conceded per game, they rank among the top 8 in the NFL.
While the Cowboys are still slight favourites for us, we don’t see them ahead on the projected -7 in handicap. Therefore, a bet on the Raiders +7 is the slightly better option for Dallas vs. Las Vegas.
Key Players:
QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
WR: Michael Gallup
TE: Dalton Schultz
K: Greg Zuerlein
Las Vegas Raiders – stats & current form
Quo Vadis Raiders? They are actually still in third place in the AFC West standings, with only one more loss on their record than the leading Chiefs. So the playoffs are still very much possible. But for that to happen, they need another win.
So why not turn the tables on Thanksgiving, as the Cowboys have been anything but successful on this holiday in the past two years. Last year they even lost 16:41 at home to Washington.
Running game must improve significantly
To do that, however, they need to address one area in particular that has been extremely weak of late: the running game. A total of 72 yards against the Bengals was already a subterranean value, the 50 yards before that against the Chiefs was even their absolute negative value of the season.
It is good for them that Dallas consistently allows more than 100 yards rushing, e.g. 126 yards against the Chiefs on Sunday and 190 yards against the Broncos a fortnight ago. So the matchup works out reasonably well for the Raiders.
Can the Raiders put pressure on Prescott?
Maybe the Raiders watched the Cowboys game against the Chiefs on Sunday night. It was quite obvious how to beat them. With tremendous QB pressure from the start. The Chiefs were able to sack Prescott five times and also forced two interceptions and a fumble.
If the Raiders manage to do the same, chances are they can at least pull off a close game. In addition to bets of +7 on the Raiders, odds on subpar points are still bettable on Cowboys vs Raiders, as the 50-point mark is very rarely broken in games between these two teams.
Key Players:
QB: Derek Carr
RB: Josh Jacobs
WR: Hunter Renfrow
TE: Darren Waller
K: Daniel Carlson
Dallas Cowboys – Las Vegas Raiders Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
We’ve already hinted that this matchup doesn’t suit the Raiders as badly as the record suggests. True, they lost all of their last three duels, but rarely ever by a large margin. In any case, since 1998, they’ve lost only one game to Dallas by more than a one-score difference.
Of the last five games in Dallas, three were won by the Raiders, even if some of those games took place a few years ago. Still, with the Cowboys’ injury woes, we don’t see Las Vegas as without a chance.
This makes Cowboys vs Raiders odds on the Raiders good to play with a certain +7 to +10 handicap. A combination with under-scoring would also be an option here, especially since the Cowboys’ offense has stumbled a lot lately.
Dallas Cowboys – Las Vegas Raiders Tip
The bookmakers see Dallas ahead by 7-8 points. On the one hand, this is understandable due to their good home record (4-1). However, they completely blew their last meeting at home against an AFC West team (Broncos) with 16:30.
Since we would put the Raiders on about the same level as Denver, such a defeat cannot be ruled out for Thursday either. Thus, a tip at fair betting odds on Vegas +7 is our favoured betting recommendation for Cowboys vs. Raiders.
Alternatively, betting on Under 29.5 Cowboys points is also an option. If Cooper (covid) and Lamb (concussion) are out on Thursday, the Texans are so weakened offensively that it should be difficult for them to break that mark.
