Will Wolfsburg cause Sevilla’s early exit?
In Group G of the UEFA Champions League, the current standings provide plenty of excitement. With two matchdays to go, all four teams can still make it into the last 16. In purely mathematical terms, Sevilla currently have the worst cards and the most complicated starting position. A win at home against VfL Wolfsburg on Tuesday evening is virtually mandatory for the Andalusians.
With three points, the “Nervionenses” are currently in last place in the standings. The visitors from Lower Saxony, meanwhile, have two points more on their account and could put themselves in a good position for the showdown in early December as part of matchday five.
This assessment is based primarily on the Spaniards’ traditional home strength, which has hardly made itself felt on the international stage recently and has not been reflected in positive results either. Therefore, it might even be a bit cleverer to focus on a bet on the number of goals between Sevilla and Wolfsburg. After all, we don’t believe in offensive fireworks given the trend-setting nature.
Sevilla – Statistics & current form
Doubtlessthree Sevilla Fútbol Club have been one of the disappointments of the current Champions League season so far. Before the start of the group stage, the multiple Europa League/UEFA Cup winners were still considered favourites for first place in Group G, but coach Julen Lopetegui’s men have their backs to the wall after four matches.
The Andalusians are still waiting for their first win. After three draws at the beginning of the season, they suffered a painful 2-1 defeat against Lille, which dropped them down to fourth place in the group and they now need the best possible points from the remaining two matches to reach the last 16. Only the belief in this has been somewhat lost in recent weeks among the red and white team.
Sevilla’s allergy to German teams
Statistics show, for example, that Sevilla have failed to win any of their last four home games in the top flight. In addition, the Nervionenses have been waiting for a full success on the international stage against a German team for seven matches now (three draws, four defeats).
However, the impressive home record in La Liga gives hope. After six games at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, they have 16 out of a possible 18 points. The only draw came at the weekend with a 2-2 draw against Alaves. The equaliser came in stoppage time, which could give the team a positive push for the upcoming task in the Champions League.
Lopetegui must do without his star striker En Nesyri
Given the home strength of the Andalusians and their wealth of experience in the European Cup, we do not think it is out of the question to bet on a home win between Sevilla and Wolfsburg. More attractive, however, is the bet on the under 2.5, which would have gone through in eleven of the 17 competitive matches involving Lopetegui’s team this season.
The absence of the home side’s top scorer also points to a low-scoring game. Due to a muscle injury, attacker En Nesyri will definitely have to miss the game. Veteran Jesus Navas and Suso will also be absent. Delaney and Lamela are also question marks.
Predicted Sevilla line-up:
Bono; Montiel, Kounde, Carlos, Acuna; Jordan, Fernando, Rakitic; Ocampos, Mir, Idrissi
Last matches played by Sevilla:
LaLiga
11/20 2021 – Sevilla 2 – 2 Deportivo Alaves
11/07 2021 – Real Betis 0 – 2 Sevilla
Champions League Grp. G
11/02 2021 – Sevilla 1 – 2 Lille
LaLiga
10/30 2021 – Sevilla 2 – 0 Osasuna Pamplona
10/27 2021 – Mallorca 1 – 1 Sevilla
Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form
Florian Kohfeldt has been in charge of VfL Wolfsburg for four games now. The ex-Bremer has yet to suffer a defeat. Last weekend, however, it almost came to that. In Bielefeld, the Lower Saxons managed to come back from a 2-0 deficit to draw 2-2 and thus remain unbeaten in their fourth attempt with the new coach (three wins, one draw).
The team from Autostadt would like to continue their series on Tuesday evening and take a good step towards the last 16. Even a draw in Andalusia would be enough to put their progress in a fortnight’ time in their own hands at home to Lille.
Kohfeldt already happy with a draw?
Although this constellation naturally also involves certain risks, and in the event of a defeat the Wolves could drop to the last place in Group G, it should help them not to have to play for a win. At the same time, this starting position provides another sustainable argument for checking the odds on a sub-par match in the duel between Sevilla and Wolfsburg. We also think it is not unlikely that the score is still 0-0 at half-time.
However, we wouldn’t necessarily want to pick VfL as the winner either, as the former quarter-finalists in this competition have only celebrated three victories in their previous ten away matches in the top flight. In Spain, moreover, there has been no treble at all in three attempts.
Little spectacle in Wolves’ CL games so far
More interesting, then, is the swing back towards a low-scoring encounter, which can be justified in that even in 17 competitive matches with green-white participation, betting on the under 2.5 would have paid off on eleven occasions. Moreover, VfL is the team whose matches in the current Champions League saw the fewest shots on goal. The Lower Saxons are also mainly responsible for this, as only Malmö and Milan have fired fewer shots on target than the Kohfeldt eleven in the first four matchdays.
William, Xaver Schlager and Bartosz Bialek will definitely be missing. Paulo Otavio is also likely to be unavailable after his injury-related substitution against Bielefeld. Otherwise, however, all men are on board, including leading player Maxi Arnold, who will play his 32nd European Cup game for the Wolves and thus passes the previous record holder Marcel Schäfer.
Predicted Wolfsburg line-up:
Casteels; Lacroix, Brooks, Bornauw; Mbabu, Vranckx, Arnold, Roussillon; Baku, Weghorst, Nmecha
Last matches played by Wolfsburg:
1st Bundesliga
11/20 2021 – Arminia Bielefeld 2 – 2 Vfl Wolfsburg
Club friendlies
11/10 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 1 – 3 Hansa Rostock
1st Bundesliga
11/06 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 1 – 0 Augsburg
Champions League Grp. G
11/02 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 2 – 1 Salzburg
1st Bundesliga
10/30 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 2 Vfl Wolfsburg
Sevilla – Wolfsburg Direct comparison / H2H-balance
The first leg at the end of September was the first and only meeting between these two clubs so far. Renato Steffen gave the Wölfe a 1-0 lead in front of their home crowd, Ivan Rakitic equalised shortly before the end on a penalty kick for a 1-1 final score. As mentioned earlier, it was the Andalusians’ seventh consecutive match against a German team that they have not won.
Sevilla – Wolfsburg Tip
In Group G, there will probably be no preliminary decision in the battle for the two places in the last 16 on Tuesday evening. The four teams are too close together in terms of points and performance. Sevilla, in particular, will have to cope with an enormous amount of pressure, because even a draw could mean early elimination.
In view of this situation, we can well imagine that relatively few goals will be scored. The guests can concentrate on defensive tasks for the time being, as they would be satisfied with a draw. However, because the hosts have not been convincing in the top division so far and are also without top striker En Nesyri, it threatens to be a game of patience for the Lopetegui eleven.
We have therefore decided to play the betting odds between Sevilla and Wolfsburg at Under 2.5. Both teams have scored a maximum of two goals in eleven of the 17 games they have played this season. We expect the same this time around.
The top odds of 1.87 can be played at Unibet. We risk a stake of six units and at the same time point out that a bet on a goalless first half also yields attractive quotes. If you instead believe in the home strength of the Sevillistas, which has been proven several times, and expect a home win, you can find a 1.81 for a three-goal win for the Nervionenses at the same provider.
