Do the Colts stay in the playoff race?
It’s getting down to the wire in the battles for the playoff spots and one of the most exciting duels in the AFC awaits us in Buffalo on Sunday. There the 6:3 Bills meet the 5:5 Colts.
Currently, the Bills would be seeded 2nd in the AFC, whereas the Colts lack a single win to slide into the postseason ranks. So Indy is also under a little more pressure after their slow start to the season.
However, Sunday’s game should not be a one-sided affair as the Colts are coming off two straight wins, even if those were only against the Jets and the Jaguars. But even before that, their upward trend showed in the unfortunate defeat in Baltimore.
Therefore, for Bills vs. Colts, our prediction is a close game that should definitely have some points to offer. In the previous playoffs in January, Buffalo narrowly prevailed 27-24 at the same venue.
Kickoff of the Sunday Game is Sunday at 7:00 p.m. in Buffalo and the game will be broadcast live on ProSieben Maxx and on DAZN.
Buffalo Bills – Statistics & current form
While the Bills seemed to be one of the most consistent teams in the league at the beginning of the season, they have now also been hit by the NFL’s surprise package. Meaning: It is hard to predict in which form we will catch Buffalo on the next game day.
In the last four weeks, convincing games have alternated with less convincing ones. The lowest point was certainly the 6:9 defeat in Jacksonville. No one really expected that.
Defence even stronger than the offence
Also, while the offense was their biggest weapon at the beginning of the season, it’s now their defense – at least in most games. With 15.0 points conceded on average, no other team allows fewer points.
They are vulnerable, if at all, via the run. That’s what happened in the 31:34 against Tennessee (146 rushing yards allowed) or against the Chiefs (120 yards). It’s a bad coincidence that one of the top 6 rushing teams, the Colts, is now coming to Buffalo (136.3 yards per game).
Will it be another thriller?
The Wild Card Game from January offers a good starting point for how Sunday’s game could play out. Back then, the Bills narrowly won 27-24 in the end and a similar result could be in store for us this weekend due to the strengths of the game.
For Bills vs. Colts, the odds on the Bills with a handicap are therefore a risk. We already expect Indianapolis to be able to keep up and therefore decide on a points bet on Indy as the favoured bet. They should be able to put up at least 20.5 – even against this good defence.
Key Players:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Dawson Knox
K: Tyler Bass
Indianapolis Colts – stats & current form
The Colts are still not at a positive record. However, they are now back on track after their disastrous 0-3 start and they are just one win away from a playoff spot.
With the Texans and Jaguars the only two teams left with a negative record, every game counts double for them from now on. We expect them to need at least a 9-8 record in the AFC to reach the postseason
Offense wins Games …
With their defence not ranked in the top 10 in 2021, there is also more pressure on their offence this year. There, running back Jonathan Taylor currently carries the team in particular – whereas quarterback Carson Wentz is still weakening.
Against this strong Bills defence, however, it is only possible with a really solid offensive performance. 25-30 points will be needed to win the game. They’ve reached that 25-point mark six times in their last seven games.
High scoring game not unlikely
We expect this to happen again on Sunday, which is why a bet on more than 20.5 Colts points in Buffalo vs. Indianapolis is a no-brainer for us. The very strong defensive performances of the Bills came against weaker opponents.
So we can also expect a few points overall. As already mentioned: The 27:24 (for the Bills) from January is a result that could be repeated almost 1:1 on Sunday. Possibly even with reversed signs.
Key Players:
QB: Carson Wentz
RB: Jonathan Taylor
WR: Michael Pittman Jr.
TE: Jack Doyle
K: Rodrigo Blankenship
Buffalo Bills – Indianapolis Colts Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
We’ve referenced the 27-24 from the Wild Card Game several times now. That’s about how we see the balance of power for Sunday. But that also means that any extra mistake or big play could turn the game around.
A long rushing touchdown by Taylor, for example, or a defensive touchdown by the Bills. Both, incidentally, are bets that are possible for Sunday and guarantee great value.
Bets on Indy are also worth considering, although they do involve a certain amount of risk. Because these Bills can always play themselves into a frenzy, especially in front of the home fans.
Buffalo Bills – Indianapolis Colts Tip
Offensively as well as defensively, the Bills are ahead of the Colts. However, they also had some very weak opponents in their schedule (Texans, Jaguars Dolphins 2x), against whom it was not too difficult to put down a good defensive performance.
In this respect, the 15.0 points conceded per game are somewhat relative. We definitely trust the Colts to break the 20-point mark, especially with a running back like Taylor. For Bills vs Colts, a bet on Indy Over 20.5 is also our No.1 betting option.
Speaking of Jonathan Taylor, betting on a rushing tocuhdown from the running back is also a top option for the betting base. In his last seven games he has scored nine of them.
