Does Zverev book his place in the semi-finals of the ATP Finals?

Germany’s number one Alexander Zverev narrowly missed out on an early spot in the semi-finals of the ATP Finals 2021 in Turin on Tuesday afternoon. However, postponed is not canceled and on Thursday Zverev will have the next opportunity to fix his progress. To avoid any arithmetic games in the round-robin system, Alexander Zverev must win against Hubert Hurkacz.

With a win, the last group match between Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner would only have statistical and entertaining value. If Sinner, who has stepped in, wins against Medvedev and also has two wins to his credit, Zverev would be in the semi-finals because he played one more match. The chances of the third ATP Finals semi-final are therefore very good for the German. The bookmakers are currently offering betting odds of under 1.30 on the duel between Zverev and Hurkacz.

The Pole was at a complete loss against his good friend Jannik Sinner on Tuesday evening and delivered arguably one of his weakest performances in recent months. The long, energy-sapping season has clearly left its mark. It is hard to imagine that he will be a stumbling block for Alexander Zverev in his last match in 2021.

Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form

A match at the highest level was played by Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev in the afternoon session on Tuesday. On the fast indoor surface, the two hardly showed any weakness on service, losing only one serve in over 2:30 hours. Zverev fended off two match points, but the current US Open winner was able to take the third opportunity.

Zverev is calm

Zverev has not yet secured his third semi-final appearance in the tournament of the best eight. But not much has really changed for Alexander Zverev. With a win, he is in the final round and thus the match against Hubert Hurkacz feels like a regular quarter-final in a tournament. After all, tennis players are used to the fact that victories are necessary to advance to the next round.

In any case, the performance in Turin is a great encouragement. Those who were worried that Zverev would not be physically able to deliver a top performance after the intense last few weeks were wrong. He was able to make the most of the free time after his semi-final loss to Medvedev in Paris and the start of the tournament in Turin. Zverev was much stronger in the duel with “Meddy” than in the duel ten days ago.

Very dependent on the serve

Despite the narrow defeat and the improvement in performance compared to the last Medvedev duel, there must also be a little criticism. Zverev is extremely dependent on his own serve. When this comes, he has all the tools to hold against any player on the tour. But as soon as the percentage goes down on the first serve, he lacks another weapon to take the match.

This was especially evident against Medvedev in the first set, when he hardly got any free points and therefore only managed to win 69 percent of the points on the first serve. In set two he hit 13 aces (in set one only one) and thus had much more confidence as a return player. The serve will also be a central element against Hurkacz, although he will not be forced into the defensive here as much as he was against Medvedev. The performance fits in any case and therefore there is not much doubt that the tip will fall on the German in Zverev’s match against Hurkacz.

Hubert Hurkacz – Statistics & current form

A very strong performance against Daniil Medvedev was also delivered by Hubert Hurkacz. In his debut at the ATP Finals, the tall Pole played boldly and even took the first set. His service was also the key to his success. At 1.96 metres tall, Hurkacz has enormous leverage on his service and the very fast indoor surface in Turin certainly plays into his favour.

Weak performance against his best friend

In the evening session Hurkacz had to play Jannik Sinner at short notice instead of Matteo Berrettini. Berrettini’s withdrawal had already become apparent and so the duel against his best friend on the tour was on the agenda. Hurkacz had obvious problems with his opponent and the very good atmosphere in the hall. He held his own in some phases, but when it came to the big points, the Pole was a long way from his best tennis. In the end, he did not convert any of his five break points, but had to give up his serve four times. Especially for a player with his service strength on a fast surface, this was a disastrous result.

Last match of the year

At times, Hurkacz’s lack of spryness was also clearly noticeable in his duel with Sinner. The exertions of the long season, his most successful so far, have clearly left their mark. A final highlight is now on the agenda against Alexander Zverev. After two defeats, the Pole’s chances of advancing are only theoretical.

This will certainly take some of the pressure off his shoulders, but it is hardly conceivable that he will put up much of a fight. After the performance against Sinner, a prediction on the Polish underdog in the match between Zverev and Hurkacz is not advisable. Even a set win would be a surprise.

Alexander Zverev – Hubert Hurkacz Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to Head: 1:0

The only duel between the two players so far was more than two and a half years ago. In the third round of the Masters tournament in Madrid, Alexander Zverev prevailed in three sets on clay court. However, this duel is not really relevant for the last group match at the ATP Finals 2021 in Turin.

Alexander Zverev – Hubert Hurkacz Tip

Win or fly – the well-known motto in tennis applies to Alexander Zverev in this match. With a win, any arithmetic games are obsolete and the German is in the semi-finals. The very fast indoor surface suits Zverev very well so far and in both matches the Thomalla friend delivered an appealing performance. The very clear favourites that the bookmakers put between Zverev and Hurkacz with odds of under 1.30 are certainly justified.

The German definitely has an advantage in terms of form, as even before the Sinner performance, Hurkacz had been delivering mixed results in recent weeks. In addition, the far greater experience and also the higher quality speaks for the German. This is rounded off by the starting situation, which is much better for Zverev. All in all, the forecast for Alexander Zverev against Hubert Hurkacz is therefore a 2:0 set win for the favourite with seven units at stake.