Does the North Macedonian World Cup dream live on?
In the German Qualifying Group J, the big showdown for second place will take place on Sunday evening. The pole position in the race for the play-off place is definitely held by North Macedonia. Should the European Championship participants win their home match against weakening Iceland, they would definitely be assured of a place behind the DFB team.
In the event of a draw or even a defeat, coach Milevski’s team would have to hope for help from Liechtenstein against Romania. If, contrary to expectations, both teams lose, even the Armenians still have a mathematical chance to climb from fourth to second place in their home match against Germany. However, ahead of the match between North Macedonia and Iceland, the odds already suggest that a lot speaks in favour of the home side.
Hope for a home win is primarily based on the fact that Milevski’s team gained a lot of self-confidence in their 5-0 away win in Armenia on Thursday evening and put themselves in a good starting position. In addition, it should not be forgotten that the guests, who once caused a lot of excitement in European football, no longer have the charisma of days gone by. Consequently, this pronounced role of the hosts as favourites is quite understandable.
Northern Macedonia – Statistics & current form
Every international match of the North Macedonian national football team is currently celebrated at home like a World Cup final. At the latest since the sensationally successful participation in the European Championship, the footballers have become absolute national heroes. This heroic status could now become even greater, because if coach Milevski’s team wins on Sunday evening, one of the coveted play-off places would no longer be out of reach.
The 74th-ranked team in the world earned their place in the final on home soil thanks to a convincing 5-0 win in Armenia on Thursday. The outstanding man on the pitch was captain Enis Bardhi, who scored three goals, two of them from penalties. It is therefore all the more surprising that a bet on Bardhi to score in the duel between North Macedonia and Iceland is rewarded with a very high 3.60 in the Bet365 app. Value is definitely to be identified.
Macedonians have play-off participation in their own hands
The situation is similar when it comes to home victories, because if you exclude the expected 4-0 defeat against Germany, North Macedonia did not concede a single goal in the other three home games in the course of World Cup qualifying. Before the aforementioned defeat against the DFB team, the south-eastern Europeans had been unbeaten at home for two years, so the current second-placed team in Group J can certainly be said to have a certain home strength.
Moreover, the constellation before the group final could hardly be more beautiful. The proud North Macedonians do not have to look at other places, but have everything in their own hands. In view of their good performances in the course of this World Cup qualifying campaign (four wins, three draws, two defeats), as well as their impressive goal difference of 20:10 and the self-confidence they have gained from the aforementioned win on Thursday, we believe that the prediction of a home draw between North Macedonia and Iceland will pay off.
Predicted line-up of North Macedonia:
Dimitrievski; S. Ristovski, Velkovski, Musliu, Alioski; Kostadinov; Churlinov, Elmas, Bardhi, Trajkovski; M. Ristovski
Last matches played by North Macedonia:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. J
11/11 2021 – Armenia 0 – 5 North Macedonia
10/11 2021 – North Macedonia 0 – 4 Germany
10/08 2021 – Liechtenstein 0 – 4 North Macedonia
09/08 2021 – North Macedonia 0 – 0 Romania
09/05 2021 – Iceland 2 – 2 Northern Macedonia
Iceland – Statistics & current form
You still get a bit of a feeling that the bookies are somewhat blinded by the Icelandic national team’s success in recent years. However, there is unfortunately not much left of the team that once reached the European Championship quarter-finals in 2016 and also qualified for a World Cup finals for the first time in 2018. The development curve is definitely pointing downwards, which became clear once again in the current qualifying campaign.
Behind their direct rivals from northern Macedonia, Romania and Armenia, the Icelanders only finished fifth in the German group. The only two victories came against last-place Liechtenstein (4:1, 4:0). In the other seven matches, they scored only three goals of their own, which is impressive proof of their offensive harmlessness. Not least for this reason, it may even be an option to take a closer look at the odds for a home win to nil between North Macedonia and Iceland.
After 0-0 in Romania: Will Iceland also upset North Macedonia?
It will be interesting to see if coach Arnar Vidarsson’s team can motivate themselves again on Sunday. They succeeded quite well in Romania on Thursday. Because of the 0:0 draw, the Tricolorii wasted their own good starting position in the first place. Now the Romanians have to hope that the Vikings will help them.
We are not particularly positive, however, especially as the Scandinavians have only won two away games under their 43-year-old manager, who has only been in charge since December 2020. However, because the opponents in both of these matches, Liechtenstein and the Faroe Islands, were easy at best, there is a lack of arguments pointing in the direction of a surprise coup.
The fact that nothing is at stake for the northern Europeans could even play into the home side’s favour, as the visitors are unlikely to stay in their own half for more than 90 minutes. Accordingly, there should be spaces for the northern Macedonians. Skulason is not available due to injury. Changes compared to the 0-0 draw in Romania, in which keeper Olafsson faced 23 shots on goal, cannot be ruled out. Maybe one or the other of the supplementary players will get the opportunity to prove themselves on the international stage.
Predicted Iceland line-up:
Olafsson; Sampsted, Brynjar Bjarnason, Gretarsson, Thorarinsson; Johannesson, Birkir Bjarnason, Thordarson; Gudmundsson, Gudjohnsen, Thorsteinsson
Last matches played by Iceland:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. J
11/11 2021 – Romania 0 – 0 Iceland
10/11 2021 – Iceland 4 – 0 Liechtenstein
10/08 2021 – Iceland 1 – 1 Armenia
09/08 2021 – Iceland 0 – 4 Germany
09/05 2021 – Iceland 2 – 2 North Macedonia
Northern Macedonia – Iceland Direct comparison / H2H balance
The two teams have already faced each other five times in World Cup qualifiers. With two wins, two draws and only one defeat, the North Macedonians lead the direct comparison. The respective guest has never been able to land a success. In three out of five cases, the home team won. The first leg ended in a 2-2 draw at the beginning of September, when the north-easterners managed to equalise the 2-0 lead in the final quarter of the game.
Northern Macedonia – Iceland tip
After their sensational European Championship participation in 2021, the Northern Macedonian national team will also want to keep their chances of reaching a World Cup finals for the first time alive. The prerequisite for this is a home victory on Sunday evening against an Icelandic team that simply lacks offensive punch. Although the defence has been more stable of late, the flight to Qatar has long since taken off without the northern lights.
The fact that Northern Macedonia are favourites against Iceland according to the betting odds is, in our opinion, entirely justifiable. On the one hand, Milevski’s team has made a more consistent impression in recent weeks and months. On the other hand, there is nothing at stake for the visitors. The 0-0 draw in Romania on Thursday should not be overrated either, because if the hosts had not been so careless with their own chances, the Icelanders would have lost.
In sum, we believe that the proud football nation of North Macedonia will not show any weakness. We believe in the home victory and the play-off ticket that comes with it. Between North Macedonia and Iceland, the corresponding tip on the three-way market is offered at top odds of 1.60 at Bwin.
