Will the world champions punch their World Cup ticket?
Just two months ago, people in France were wondering whether World Cup-winning coach Didier Deschamps was still the right man for the Equipe Tricolore? Criticism of the coach grew from appearance to appearance, so that some experts already assumed that the ex-professional would use the early exit from the European Championship as an opportunity to make his post available. In the meantime, however, it is clear that Deschamps is firmly back in the saddle! Thanks to the Nations League.
In October, the reigning world champions won the admittedly insignificant but very prestigious title in the newly created UEFA format thanks to two comeback victories. This triumph was worth its weight in gold, especially for their own self-confidence, as they have not yet been able to book a direct ticket to the 2022 World Cup. That should change on Saturday evening, however, if the prediction of a home victory in the France vs. Kazakhstan clash pays off as expected.
Although the French have not been convincing in their World Cup qualifying campaign so far and have only managed to win three of the six matches they have played, the odds for the encounter at the Prinzenpark in Paris leave no room for two opinions. Between France and Kazakhstan, the odds on an away coup for the semi-Siberians are a staggering 81.00. Even Colombia, the 2022 world champions, are offered lower quotes.
France – Statistics & current form
In July 2022, Didier Deschamps will celebrate his tenth anniversary as France’s national coach. The likelihood that the 53-year-old will still be on the bench of the 2018 title winners in the summer of next year, around four months before the start of the “mission to defend the title” at the World Cup in Qatar, increased significantly in October.
If potential successor candidates were already being touted especially after the first half in the Nations League semi-final against Belgium, in which the French fell behind early and deservedly with 0:2, the former professional of Juventus, Chelsea as well as Marseille has meanwhile put almost all arguments on his side again. The world number three turned the aforementioned semi-final into a 3:2 victory and finally secured the title against Spain in the final.
Did late starters France once again convince in half-time?
Nevertheless, the performances against the absolute top teams should not hide the fact that the star ensemble from the Grande Nation has had a surprisingly difficult time against supposed underdogs in recent months. In the World Cup qualifiers, for example, the French surprisingly dropped points against Ukraine in the first and second legs and against Bosnia (both draws). Due to the inconsistent direct competition, Kylian Mbappé and Co. will nevertheless be handed the group win on a silver platter on Saturday evening. A win against Kazakhstan will definitely be enough to secure first place.
In the unequal duel against the outsiders, it will be interesting to see whether the attack once again falls short of its own standards. Despite outstanding individual quality, they did not score more than two goals in any of the six qualifying matches mentioned above. From a purely statistical point of view, it is therefore quite risky to bet on France and Kazakhstan scoring at least two goals in the first half.
However, due to the home advantage, the confidence and the fact that “Les Bleus” were already leading at the break in the first leg, we believe that betting on more than 1.5 goals in the first half offers attractive value. The injured Kimpembe, Pogba and Varane are the most prominent absentees. On the offensive side, however, Deschamps has a wealth of quality that will play “cat and mouse” with the visitors’ internationally inexperienced defence.
Predicted France line-up:
Lloris; Kounde, Upamecano, L. Hernandez; Pavard, Kante, Tchouameni, T. Hernandez; Griezmann; Mbappe, Benzema
Last matches played by France:
World Cup Qualification UEFA Grp. I
10/26 2021 – Kazakhstan 0 – 5 France
10/22 2021 – France 11 – 0 Estonia
09/21 2021 – Slovenia 2 – 3 France
09/17 2021 – Greece 0 – 10 France
Friendly match
06/10 2021 – France 1 – 0 Germany
Kazakhstan – Statistics & current form
For the Kazakhs, it’s all about the famous “golden pineapple” in their qualifying match. It is already clear that the Eastern Europeans will finish Group D in last place. No wonder, because in the seven games so far, the football dwarf has not managed a single victory. Respectable results such as those in the first and second legs against Ukraine (1-1, 2-2) and against Bosnia (2-2), however, underline the fact that Kazakhstan have usually been competitive.
On balance, however, it was the many goals conceded (twelve) that ruined a better result. An interesting statistic in this context is that the last-placed team in the group was behind at half-time in five of the seven qualifying matches and did not score a single goal in the first 45 minutes (six goals conceded). Consequently, a preliminary decision could also be made before the end of the first half on Saturday evening in Paris.
Kazakhstan and the curse of the first halves
A look at the last results against national teams from the top shelf also speaks in favour of this. In the aforementioned first leg, the semi-Asians were 2-0 down at the break. In the European Championship qualifiers for the 2021 tournament and in the World Cup qualifiers for the finals in Russia, the Kazakhs also often missed out on more positive results in the first half.
Between France and Kazakhstan, the odds on the over 1.5 in the first half are just as attractive as a bet on Benzema and Co. to show some footballing promise after their success in the Nations League. The fans at Prinzenpark would certainly not mind if the handicap tip (-3) pays off at the top odds of 2.33 at Unibet.
Predicted line-up of Kazakhstan:
Pokalitov; Beysebekov, Alip, Maliy; Bystrov, Kuat, Zhukov, Vasiljev, Taykenov; Shushenachev, Omirtaev
Last matches played by Kazakhstan:
World Cup Qualification UEFA Grp. I
10/26 2021 – Kazakhstan 0 – 5 France
10/22 2021 – Kazakhstan 0 – 1 Greece
09/21 2021 – Greece 3 – 2 Kazakhstan
09/17 2021 – Wales 6 – 0 Kazakhstan
Friendly match
06/15 2021 – Armenia 0 – 3 Kazakhstan
France – Kazakhstan Direct Comparison / H2H Record
The first leg at the end of March was the first and only meeting between these two countries so far. Ousmane Dembele and an own goal by Sergiy Maliy gave the favourites a 2-0 lead in the first half. After the break, Kylian Mbappé missed a penalty to increase the lead to 3-0. 9:1 shots on goal, 63% possession and almost twice as many passes played prove the dominance of the world champions.
France – Kazakhstan Tip
In Group D, there will most likely be a decision on Saturday evening. The reigning world champions France will need a win at home against Kazakhstan to secure their ticket to the World Cup in Qatar as group winners. We have no doubts about this home win, even though the Deschamps team has not been convincing so far in the qualifiers and has fallen short of its own expectations, especially offensively.
The fact that we are nevertheless aiming for a high and, above all, commanding success for the hosts at the Prinzenpark this weekend between France and Kazakhstan is primarily due to the fact that the 2018 world champions tanked up with plenty of self-confidence in October and naturally have extreme quality in their forward play.
In addition, it must not be forgotten that there is nothing left at stake for the visitors. Perhaps, therefore, the semi-Asians will take advantage of the moment and not exclusively line up at the back. This, in turn, would lead to a victory for the Equipe Tricolore that is perhaps higher than expected.
Finding attractive betting odds on France vs. Kazakhstan turns out to be complicated. Nevertheless, we believe that, similar to the first leg, two or more goals will be scored in the first 45 minutes.
