Does Medvedev make short work of the debutant?
After his most successful season as a tennis professional so far, which had several highlights with three singles titles and reaching the semi-finals at the Wimbledon Championships, Hubert Hurkacz is now qualified for the ATP Finals for the first time in his career. In Turin, he will directly face the defending champion in the first match. A year ago, Daniil Medvedev won the final 2:1 against Dominic Thiem.
The Russian superstar, who has just been crowned Grand Slam champion at the 2021 US Open, is also the favourite now. In the run-up to the first group match between Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz, the odds are clearly in favour of the Russian.
However, the strong-playing Pole is by no means without a chance. At the Wimbledon Championships, the current ninth-ranked player shocked Daniil Medvedev in the round of 16 and managed to knock the Russian out of the competition 3:2 after a tough battle. For the defending champion, today is also about revenge.
Given the Russian’s current form, we see a lot of value in betting on Daniil Medvedev against Hubert Hurkacz for a commanding opening victory. We therefore recommend betting on the world number two to win with at least a five-game lead.
Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form
Current position in the world ranking: 2.
Position in the seedings: 2.
The 25-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev is currently participating in the ATP Finals for the third time in a row. Although he did not make it past the preliminary round on his debut two years ago, he completely took off last autumn.
After the current world number two beat Novak Djokovic 2-0 in the preliminary round, he then defeated Rafael Nadal 2-1 in the semifinals and then won the title against Dominic Thiem 2-1 in the final.
Taking the Grand Slam title for the third time
As the reigning world champion, Daniil Medvedev then started a very successful 2021 season overall, which is now set to end with another highlight. The Russian reached the final of the Australian Open 2021, which he lost to Novak Djokovic.
Medvedev took revenge on the Serb this autumn when he defeated Djokovic 3-0 in the final of the 2021 US Open, thus securing a Grand Slam for the first time at his third attempt. It was one of four singles titles this year.
52 of 64 singles won in 2021
Just last Sunday, the 25-year-old was in another final at the Paris Masters. However, after leading 1:0 in the set, he lost two sets in a row and was once again defeated by Novak Djokovic, who is now also considered his biggest rival at the ATP Finals.
However, with a very strong annual record of 52 wins from his 64 singles matches, there should be little to stop the Russian, at least in the group phase.
Hubert Hurkacz – Statistics & current form
Current position in the world ranking: 9.
Position in the seedings: 7.
The 24-year-old Pole Hubert Hurkacz already made a name for himself in his junior career before he ventured onto the ATP Tour in 2018, where he increasingly established himself from year to year.
However, the man from Wroclaw only made his breakthrough this year when the 1.96-metre tall giant won his first major title at an ATP Tour Masters 1000 tournament at ATP Miami 2021.
Three singles titles, Wimbledon semifinals and leap into the top 10
It was one of three singles titles the Pole has won this year
It should be noted, however, that Hurkacz did not have to knock out any heavyweights in his victories in Delray Beach in April and most recently in Metz at the end of September.
Still, his record of 36 wins to 20 losses in the 2021 season points to how well things have gone overall for Hubert Hurkacz, who gets to finish a year in the top 10 of the ATP world rankings for the first time.
Hurkacz benefited from Nadal’s injury
While currently ranked ninth, the Polish giant of serve benefited from the injury to Rafael Nadal, who was unable to travel to Turin, which means he is now qualified for the ATP Finals for the first time. Nevertheless, Hurkacz wants to look for his chance in the Red Group and can at least show a win rate of 50% against Medvedev and Berrettini.
It is therefore not completely out of the question that Daniil Medvedev will win against Hubert Hurkacz, even though the 24-year-old’s only triumph over Medvedev was on grass. In his only hard-court match so far, the Pole was beaten 2-1 by the world number two at the Roger’s Cup 2021.
Daniil Medvedev – Hubert Hurkacz Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 1:1
There have been two clashes between the two athletes and both date back to the current year. First, Hurkacz came back from 1-2 down to win 3-2 in the last 16 at Wimbledon before Medvedev got his revenge with a 2-1 win in the quarter-finals at the Roger’s Cup.
Daniil Medvedev – Hubert Hurkacz Tip
With Daniil Medvedev against Hubert Hurkacz, the prediction has to take into account that the Polish shooting star is playing in the ATP Finals for the first time ever. The fact that he is now entering uncharted territory is definitely a disadvantage. Already two years ago, Medvedev paid a lot of dues even on his debut and was eliminated winless with three defeats, before he recorded a sovereign overall victory with five wins last autumn.
Hurkacz is certainly capable of doing well in the Red Group. But especially in the opening match against a hard-nosed and strong Medvedev, there is little to be gained for the Pole.
We bet on Medvedev to win by a wide margin and apply a handicap of -4.5 games on him, for which betting odds of 2.12 are available on Daniil Medvedev vs Hubert Hurkacz
