The Sbornaja’s last task of duty
In Group H of the European World Cup qualifiers, a real showdown is brewing on the last matchday. If Russia (against Cyprus) and Croatia (on Malta) successfully complete their compulsory tasks on Thursday, they will go head-to-head next Sunday for a ticket to the 2022 World Cup finals in Qatar. In all likelihood, a point in Split should be enough for the Russians to celebrate their group victory.
But before the Sbornaja can start thinking about the final against the reigning runners-up, they first have to win their home match on the penultimate matchday. But it seems to be only a formality that this will be achieved. After all, odds of less than 1.20 are being offered for the favourite to win the match between Russia and Cyprus.
The pronounced role of the favourites is due to the course of the World Cup qualification so far, in which the guests from the Mediterranean island have collected only five points and have functioned as a supplier of points, especially away from home. The home side’s record, on the other hand, reads much better with six wins from eight matches and is currently enough to secure top spot in Group H. In the Russia-Cyprus clash, the prediction of a home win therefore seems to be virtually without alternative.
Russia – Statistics & current form
Valeriy Karpin took over as Russia’s new national coach at the end of July. The Sbornaja have since played five international matches under the guidance of the former world-class professional and have collected 13 points out of a possible 15. After a 0-0 draw on Karpin’s debut at home to direct rivals Croatia, the Russians have recently celebrated four wins in a row to take over the top spot in Group H.
Two matchdays before the end of qualifying, they are two points ahead of the runners-up. If the bet on a home win between Russia and Cyprus on Thursday evening pays off as expected and Croatia also win against underdog Malta, a draw in Split at the weekend would be enough for the 2018 World Cup hosts to secure a place in Qatar in the winter of 2022.
Are the Russians warming up for the group showdown?
Although hardly anyone doubts that the Russians will win at home against Cyprus, it cannot necessarily be assumed that the home side will win by a large margin. The Eastern Europeans have scored more than two goals in only one of their eight qualifying matches so far. On the other hand, the defence has become more stable under coach Karpin. In four of the aforementioned five international matches since he took office, the Sbornaja have gone without conceding a goal. However, odds of only 1.61 are offered at the top for another “to-nil” victory by Russia against Cyprus, which is why we switch to an alternative betting market.
With nothing at stake for the visitors and the Russian side possibly fielding some players who want to show their coach that they are a serious option for the final against Croatia, we would not be surprised if the favourites win by more than expected this time.
A three-goal difference seems to be within the realm of possibility. Even more interesting, however, is a bet on the world number 33 scoring at least once in both halves. After all, three of the six qualifying victories so far (two out of four under Karpin) would have gone through with such a bet.
Predicted Russia line-up:
Safonov – Kudryashov, Dzhikiya, Diveev, Sutormin – Barinov, Fomin, Golovin – Bakaev, Smolov, Miranchuk
Last matches played by Russia:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. H
10/11 2021 – Slovenia 1 – 2 Russia
10/08 2021 – Russia 1 – 0 Slovakia
09/07 2021 – Russia 2 – 0 Malta
09/04 2021 – Cyprus 0 – 2 Russia
09/01 2021 – Russia 0 – 0 Croatia
Cyprus – Statistics & current form
For the Cypriot national team, it’s all about honour on the last two matchdays. The fact that the number 103 in the FIFA world rankings will not qualify for next year’s World Cup was already clear before the group stage began. But it was not necessarily to be expected that coach Kostenoglou’s team would deliver such disappointing performances.
In the current rankings, Cyprus is even behind Malta. Their only win came at home against Slovenia (1-0). The most painful defeat was a 3-0 loss in Malta. Generally speaking, the Cypriots have not been able to win anything away from home. In three away games they lost three times (0:1, 0:2, 0:3). They failed to score a goal of their own. No wonder, then, that the odds in the Russia-Cyprus match are so clearly in favour of the host nation.
Cyprus’s goal drought takes on frightening proportions
Another interesting statistic underscores just how hopeless the players from the Mediterranean island have been in most international matches in 2021. In five out of ten cases, Kostenoglou’s team always conceded at least one goal in both halves. In 80% of all games in the current calendar year, the underdogs also failed to score, which again is an argument for betting on the “to-nil” victory or the handicap win (-2).
To conclude on a positive note, we would like to introduce the country’s most promising youngster, Loizos Loizou. The 18-year-old winger has already made 15 international appearances (one goal) for his home country and has become an absolute regular at Omonia Nicosia. The 1.68m small dribbler is an absolute hope on the island, but will hardly be able to lead the Cypriot national team into a more successful future on his own.
Predicted line-up of Cyprus:
Michail – Ioannou, Antoniadis, Andreou, Sotiriou, Dimitriou – Artymatas, Kastanos – Papoulis, Sotiriou, Loizou
Last matches played by Cyprus:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. H
10/11 2021 – Cyprus 2 – 2 Malta
10/08 2021 – Cyprus 0 – 3 Croatia
09/07 2021 – Slovakia 2 – 0 Cyprus
09/04 2021 – Cyprus 0 – 2 Russia
09/01 2021 – Malta 3 – 0 Cyprus
Russia – Cyprus Direct comparison / H2H balance
In total, the two selection teams have faced each other in six matches so far. With five wins and one draw, the direct comparison clearly goes to the Russians, who have conceded only one goal in total. In the last two years alone, there have been three encounters, all of which went to the Sbornaja. In two of the three duels mentioned above, the Eastern Europeans scored in both halves. Will this trend continue on Thursday?
Russia – Cyprus tip
On paper, the Russian national team’s home win over the Cypriot side is a mere formality. The already mentioned 1.17 on the three-way market implies a probability of 84%, but of course does not include any value. Thus, alternative betting opportunities have to be kept on the lookout.
In our eyes, there are two approaches that could lead to success. On the one hand, the odds on a home win without conceding a goal between Russia and Cyprus can be played. Even more lucrative, however, are the odds on the home side scoring at least one goal in both halves. In view of the starting position, we expect the Sbornaja to win by a slightly higher margin than in the first leg (2:0).
For example, the fact that the Cypriots have played three times away from home and have lost three times without scoring a goal of their own speaks in favour of this. Even in Malta, the Mediterranean islanders suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat. In fact, they have lost their last nine international matches away from home! Moreover, the Russians are eager to boost their confidence for the upcoming group final against Croatia at the weekend.
We therefore choose between Russia and Cyprus, betting on the favourite to score at least one goal in the first 45 minutes and one in the second 45 minutes.
