Who is clutching at the last straw?
In Group J of the 2022 World Cup Qualifiers, Germany are already certain group winners with two matchdays to go. Right behind them, Romania, with 13 points, have it in their hands to earn the right to enter the play-offs with two wins from their last two matches. Armenia and North Macedonia, who both have twelve points, will have to hope for a slip-up by the Romanians.
Only the winner of this decisive match can still have theoretical hopes of reaching the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. In the run-up to the match between Armenia and North Macedonia, the odds are swinging in the direction of the visitors, who were unable to hold their own against the Armenians in the first leg in Skopje (final score: 0-0).
While we don’t think it’s too likely that this clash will end 0-0 again, especially as this result would all but seal the exit of both teams in the event of a Romanian home win. However, we do not expect a goal festival in Yerevan either. Rather, the greatest value in the Armenia vs. North Macedonia bet is to be found in the bet that one, or at most two goals will decide the match.
Accordingly, we recommend betting on less than 2.5 goals.
Armenia – Statistics & current form
The Armenian national football team first competed in an international football match as an independent nation just over 29 years ago following the break-up of the Soviet Union. Since then, the Reds have played a total of 227 international matches, of which only 58 games have been won (49 draws, 120 defeats).
And because they have only won 34 competitive matches – including six in the UEFA Nations League – they have never qualified for a major tournament for the first time.
Only outsider’s chance of World Cup debut
At present, the Joaquín Caparrós-coached side are also left with only outsider chances as far as making their World Cup debut is concerned.
The Armenian side would then also need another win at home to Germany on Sunday evening and would also have to hope that Romania drop something against either Iceland or Liechtenstein.
Since seven international matches without a win
Last, but not least, Caparrós’ team would also have to prevail in the play-offs against another group runner-up, which is why the Armenians’ chances of making their World Cup debut are likely to be in the per mille range overall.
After all, the Reds go into this home match with a weak record. The Armenian national football team has not won any of its last seven international matches (four draws, three defeats) and has scored only four goals in that entire period.
Predicted line-up of Armenia:
Yurchenko – Hovhannisyan – Haroyan – Hambardzumyan – Voskanyan – Barseghyan – Grigoryan – Bayramyan – Mkhitaryan – Karapetyan – Adamyan
Last matches played by Armenia:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. J
10/11 2021 – Romania 1 – 0 Armenia
10/08 2021 – Iceland 1 – 1 Armenia
09/08 2021 – Armenia 1 – 1 Liechtenstein
09/05 2021 – Germany 6 – 0 Armenia
09/02 2021 – North Macedonia 0 – 0 Armenia
Northern Macedonia – Statistics & current form
The Northern Macedonian national football team has also only been competing as an independent national team since the 1990s and was previously part of Yugoslavia. It also took a long time for the Lavovi (the lions) to achieve their first successes.
Through the back door of the Nations League, in which four starting places were awarded via play-offs, the northern Macedonians won a ticket to the 2021 European Championship, where they were unable to make any impact. They lost all three games in Group C.
Only one win in their last eight competitive games
At least in preparation for the EURO, things have gone extremely well for the northern Macedonians, who have lost only two of their 14 international matches in the run-up to the European Championship and recorded a surprising 2-1 away win in Germany in March this year. It was Germany’s only defeat in Group J.
A look at their recent record quickly puts the North Macedonian surge into perspective. In fact, the Lavovi have won only one of their last eight competitive matches (three draws, four defeats) – a 4-0 away win at football dwarf Liechtenstein.
World Cup qualifying is no longer possible on their own merits
The three points against Armenia (0:0), Iceland (2:2) and Romania (0:0) also failed to materialise, bringing Blagoja Milevski’s players, who had briefly been basking in World Cup hopes, back down to earth.
Trailing Romania by one point, the 74th-ranked team in the FIFA world rankings can no longer make the play-offs on their own and must clutch at straws. It would be all the more important to at least keep their remaining hopes alive, for which it is imperative that tip 2 in Armenia against North Macedonia comes true.
Predicted line-up of North Macedonia:
Dimitrievski – Ristovski – Alioski – Ristevski – Musliu – Spirovski – Bardhi – Elmas – Kostadinov – Churlinov – Trajkovski
Last matches of North Macedonia:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. J
10/11 2021 – North Macedonia 0 – 4 Germany
10/08 2021 – Liechtenstein 0 – 4 North Macedonia
09/08 2021 – North Macedonia 0 – 0 Romania
09/05 2021 – Iceland 2 – 2 North Macedonia
09/02 2021 – North Macedonia 0 – 0 Armenia
Armenia – North Macedonia Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 4 – 3 – 4
There have been a total of eleven international matches between the two nations so far and with four wins each, the record is completely even. The last time the two teams met was in a goalless draw in the first leg in Skopje on 2 September 2021.
Armenia – North Macedonia Tip
For Armenia against North Macedonia, the prediction has to take into account that things have not been going well for either nation recently. The Armenian side has been waiting for another win for seven international matches, while the Lavovi have also only won one of their last eight competitive matches.
Both nations are one point behind Romania, which means that neither can make the play-offs on their own and will have to hope for a slip-up by the Romanians. In the process, the losing team on this penultimate matchday of Group J of the 2022 World Cup Qualifiers would also prematurely bow out of the three-team battle for the play-offs.
It is clear that the draw will all but seal the early exit of both nations. Accordingly, both usually defensive-minded teams must play to win at a certain point.
Although the value for another goalless draw is low, we still think it is unlikely that more than two goals will be scored
