Will Levante break the deadlock against the champions?
As expected, Atletico Madrid’s mission to defend their title is proving difficult this season. However, this is not necessarily due to the stronger and more consistent competition, but solely because the Colchoneros have already dropped a few points. Five victories in the first nine matchdays are currently enough for fourth place in the standings.
They are determined to improve their record on Thursday evening as part of the eleventh matchday. The clash between Levante and Atletico Madrid will take place late in the evening from 21:30. According to the odds, coach Diego Simeone’s team are the clear favourites, although they have only won two of their last five matches. The defence has also looked unusually unstable, which should give the home side hope of a surprise.
However, if we look at the table, it quickly becomes clear that the supposed surprise would actually be tantamount to a sensational coup. After all, the first division team from Valencia is still waiting for its first three points in the current season (five draws, five defeats). Before the match between Levante and Atletico Madrid, a forecast for an away win seems to be just as much an option as the Under 2.5, as we do not believe in a pronounced offensive output from the hosts.
Levante – Statistics & current form
The fans of Levante are really not to be envied these days and weeks. After the team from Valencia experienced a relatively carefree season last year, which ended in 14th place in a reasonably secure mid-table position, the 2021/22 season is likely to be all about staying in the league right from the start. Any other assessment would be completely presumptuous after the impressions of the first ten match days.
With five draws, five defeats and still without a win, the Frogs have only five points to their name. The penultimate place in the standings is the logical consequence. If you also consider that four of the five points mentioned came on the first five matchdays, it becomes clear how weak the current condition is. Four defeats from their last five encounters and a less than glorious 0-0 draw against Getafe are unlikely to raise beads of sweat on the foreheads of the visitors from the capital.
Is the Levante offence crippling once again?
A further cause for concern is the offensive harmlessness of Javi Pereira’s team, who has only been in charge at Valencia since 7 October. In the last five matches, the Blue and Reds have failed to score four times. In total, they have failed to score in exactly half of all matches played to date.
All the more surprising was last weekend’s visit to Sevilla, which ended with a curious result of 3:5. Perhaps the eight goals seen are also one of the main reasons why the odds on the under 2.5 between Levante and Atletico Madrid have risen somewhat recently.
However, we are convinced that the offensive output of three goals, which only occurred once before this season (3:3 against Real Madrid), was a “slip” and against the Rojiblancos already one goal has to be recorded as a small success. In view of this claim, a bet on a “nil” victory for the favourites in the clash between Levante and Atletico Madrid is absolutely justifiable. The injury to perhaps the most important midfielder, Jose Campana, makes the task even more difficult. Former international Mustafi, Postigo and Marti will also be missing due to injury.
Predicted Levante line-up:
Aitor; Miramon, Vezo, Pier, Clerc; Malsa; De Frutos, Melero, Bardhi, Morales; Soldado
Last matches played by Levante:
LaLiga
10/24 2021 – Sevilla 5 – 3 Levante
10/16 2021 – Levante 0 – 0 Getafe
10/02 2021 – Mallorca 1 – 0 Levante
09/26 2021 – Barcelona 3 – 0 Levante
09/21 2021 – Levante 0 – 2 Celta Vigo
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
Atletico Madrid’s home match against leaders Real Sociedad last weekend was not for the faint-hearted. Despite trailing 2-0 at one stage, the reigning champions did not give up and managed to equalise thanks to Luis Suarez. In the event of a defeat, the gap to the Basques would have grown to six points, but now the Colchoneros have a three-point difference and a game of catch-up to play. The chances of winning La Liga are therefore intact, even though there is still a lot of room for improvement in terms of football.
This becomes apparent once again when looking at the offensive statistics. The only 13 goals scored are only undercut by two other teams in the entire top half of the table. The Simeone team has never scored more than two goals in the Spanish top flight this season. That’s one of the reasons why it’s worth predicting a maximum of two goals between Levante and Atletico Madrid.
Levante in front of the chest – Betis and Liverpool in the back of the mind
Another argument, of course, is the traditionally good defensive work that the Argentine coach has long implemented in the club’s DNA. In the current season, however, they have “already” conceded eight goals in the league, although this is still the third-best figure in the top flight of Spanish football. Keeper Jan Oblak only had to make two saves – both at home, by the way. A goal conceded away from home was the “highest of feelings”.
In view of this weekend’s important home match against in-form Betis Sevilla and the subsequent second leg in the Champions League at Liverpool FC, it is unlikely that the Rojiblancos will continue to play briskly forward in the event of a lead and leave energy unnecessarily.
It is more likely that the first goal will be enough to put the game in their own hands and take them down a gear or two. A potential counter-attack shortly before the end could bring the second goal.
Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak; Felipe, Gimenez, Hermoso; Trippier, Koke, De Paul, Carrasco; Felix, Suarez, Griezmann
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
LaLiga
10/24 2021 – Atletico Madrid 2 – 2 San Sebastian
Champions League Grp. B
10/19 2021 – Atletico Madrid 2 – 3 Liverpool FC
LaLiga
10/02 2021 – Atletico Madrid 2 – 0 Barcelona
Champions League Grp. B
09/28 2021 – AC Milan 1 – 2 Atletico Madrid
LaLiga
09/25 2021 – Deportivo Alaves 1 – 0 Atletico Madrid
Levante – Atletico Madrid Direct comparison / H2H record
Only seven of 30 first league meetings between these two teams have been won by Levante. Atletico thus clearly lead the direct comparison with 18 victories. Last season, however, the Madrid side struggled in the first and second legs and had to settle for a 1-1 draw at the Ciudad de Valencia. They even lost 2-0 at home. Also interesting: In four of the last six direct duels, a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through. This was also the case on Thursday?
Levante – Atletico Madrid Tip
The match between Levante and Atletico Madrid will be played late on Thursday evening to conclude the eleventh matchday. According to the betting odds, there is much to suggest that the favourites from the Spanish capital will have the upper hand and take an important three points in the race for the championship. The fact that the home side have only collected five points so far this season and have yet to pick up a single three-pointer is a strong argument in favour of this.
Because the Simeone eleven has failed to put its horsepower on the pitch time and again recently, we would be cautious about betting on the reigning champions. While we expect Griezmann and Co. to prevail, we think there is even more attractive value hidden between Levante and Atletico Madrid in the under 2.5 bet.
Atletico have never conceded more than one goal away from home in La Liga in 2021/22, while Levante have failed to score in four of their last five games. In addition, it should not be forgotten that the Colchoneros have two important games at the weekend and in the coming week and will certainly save their strength as soon as the result allows it. Therefore, a high success is not to be thought of.
