Will Mainz stay on top?
Interestingly, there will be only one match in the Bundesliga this weekend in which two teams face each other who are currently both in the top half of the table. This will take place on Sunday afternoon at the MEWA Arena in Mainz. The guests will be the Conference League participants from the capital city.
In the secret top match of matchday nine between Mainz and Union Berlin, the odds are currently relatively good that the Rheinhessen side will land a success and thus defend their place among the best six teams in the Bundesliga.
But the fact that the Eisernen have only lost out once at national level so far this season underlines the fact that the task will not be a foregone conclusion for coach Bo Svensson’s team. The 3-0 victory in the international competition during the week should also have released some energy. Consequently, the Mainz vs. Union Berlin prediction on a home win as the first option is a little too risky for us More attractive, on the other hand, is a potential bet on rather fewer goals…
Germany Mainz – Statistics & current form
FSV Mainz 05 continue to swim on a wave of success. Week after week, coach Bo Svensson takes centre stage. Under the ex-professional, the zero-fives have a very positive record of 13 wins compared to seven draws and seven defeats. No wonder that the Rheinhessen side, with the Danish-born coach on the sidelines, have just made their best start since 2015/16. Back then, too, they collected an impressive ten points in their first six games.
The surprise sixth-placed team’s greatest strength is clearly its work against the ball. Indeed, keeper Zentner has only had to make three saves so far, twice less than Manuel Neuer at FC Bayern. FSV therefore have the best defence in the Bundesliga and have not conceded a goal in four of the six matches mentioned.
Mainz continue to keep a clean sheet at home
These numbers are already tempting to bet on sub-par goals between Mainz and Union Berlin. Especially in view of the fact that in five of the six Mainz games, a bet on a maximum of two goals in the course of the game would have gone through. Another argument is obvious, because in the three home games (two wins, one draw), the red and white team kept the clean sheet three times, even though they had already played against ambitious teams like RB Leipzig or SC Freiburg.
To conclude, the number of goals scored should not be neglected, especially as the Svensson team certainly needs to improve. Only six goals scored are below average in a league comparison. In total, only nine goals were scored with zero-five participation in six matches, so that it would be statistically very surprising if the magic mark of 2.5 were to be broken at the weekend.
The defensive stability is even higher when you consider that the actual defensive leader Niakhaté is still rehabbing after his muscle injury in the thigh and is not available. Adam Szalai and Robin Hack are also not options for Sunday. The all-round skills of the Swiss “pocket knife” Silvan Widmer will once again be in demand. It is quite possible that he will slide back into the back three from the outside.
Predicted line-up of Mainz:
Zentner – Widmer, Bell, St. Juste – Brosinski, Kohr, Lucoqui – Barreiro, Boetius – Burkardt, Ingvartsen
Last matches played by Mainz:
Germany Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
With Thursday night’s remarkable 3-0 home win over Maccabi Haifa, Union Berlin finally seem to have fully arrived in international business. After the bitter opening defeat at Slavia Prague, the Eisernen preserved all their chances of progressing with this commanding victory and can now turn their focus towards the Bundesliga.
However, we don’t believe that the multiple stresses and strains will be a deciding factor this weekend. Urs Fischer has been rotating the squad a lot lately and has of course benefited from the very broad squad that he has been given at his disposal. Moreover, this is the last match before the international break, so it might be easier for one or the other to go over the pain threshold once again. Especially when you have the chance to knock on the top of the league table.
As eighth in the table, those responsible can be very satisfied with the way the season has gone so far. Just the week before, the capital club narrowly beat Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 at home to record their second victory of the current season.
Union seek first away win since February 2021
It will be of enormous importance on Sunday afternoon that the defence finally shows more stability away from home. In the four home games they have already played, they have only conceded three goals and never more than one per game, but keeper Luthe had to make two saves in the two away games at Hoffenheim (2:2) and at Borussia Dortmund (2:4). In three of the other four matches, a bet on under 2.5 goals would still have gone through.
Because coach Urs Fischer’s team would be perfectly content with a point after 90 minutes, there is no pressure at all to take too much risk too early in the game. The Eisern are hard to beat, having lost only one of their last eight Bundesliga games and brimming with confidence after their two most recent victories.
Nevertheless: Four of the five guest games in Mainz in Rhineland-Hesse have been lost in professional football so far. With the exception of Baumgartl, all players are on board. Changes in the starting eleven are not only conceivable, but also very likely in view of the sixth competitive match in the past three weeks.
Predicted line-up of Union Berlin:
Luthe – Jaeckel, Knoche, Friedrich – Trimmel, Haraguchi, R. Khedira, Gießelmann – Voglsammer, Kruse – Awoniyi
Last matches played by Union Berlin:
Mainz – Union Berlin Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
This is the fifth time the two teams have faced each other in the Bundesliga this weekend. Two of the previous four matches went to the Berliners, who, however, lost four of the total five away matches in the carnival stronghold. In the previous season, for example, the Köpenickers returned from Mainz with a 0:1 defeat. We think a similar result is quite possible on Sunday.
Germany Mainz – Union Berlin Germany Tipp
Bo Svensson and Urs Fischer have already achieved something special. Should the tenures of these two coaches end at some point, they will probably be remembered exclusively in a positive light. Next Sunday, their teams will now face each other in a direct duel. Mainz are favoured against Union Berlin according to the betting odds.
This assessment is probably based primarily on the fact that the guests from the capital have not won any of their last eight away games in the Bundesliga and have thus been waiting since February for a win away from home. In addition, keeper Luthe has been forced to make four saves in two away games.
We nevertheless tend to bet on a maximum of two goals in the course of the match at fair odds in the match between Mainz and Union Berlin, arguing that the home side have the best defence in the Bundesliga and are even without conceding a goal at home. In addition, most of FSV’s games so far have ended with two goals or less. The Eisern will not take too many risks and will instead rely on a stable defence.
