Does BVB struggle to a must-win?

FC Augsburg will always hold a special place in Erling Haaland’s career. The Norwegian once made his Bundesliga debut against the Fuggerstädter and was substituted in mid-January with the score at 1:3 in Dortmund’s favour. A good 20 minutes later, BVB had turned the result around thanks to their wonder striker, who scored three goals. The final score was 5:3 in favour of Borussia, who have not wanted to do without Haaland since then.

The focus will also be on Haaland next Saturday This time, however, due to the fact that at this point in time, before the duel between Dortmund and Augsburg, it is not possible to make a reliable prognosis as to whether the 21-year-old will be available after his injury. The 1.94-metre tall player had to miss the last two competitive matches. Promptly, BVB managed only one goal in 180 minutes.

Independently of whether Haaland will be fit in time, the odds clearly point in the direction of the Black and Yellows in the clash between Dortmund and Augsburg. One of the reasons for the bookmakers’ assessment is that the Westphalians have won all of their last seven home games in the Bundesliga, while FCA have been without a win away from home for nine matches this season

Germany Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Normally, Marco Rose is associated with Borussia Dortmund for spectacular attacking football. On the first five Bundesliga match days this season, for example, 28 goals were scored in matches involving BVB, an average of almost six.

It was therefore all the more surprising that the most recent two games of last year’s third-placed team ended with the narrowest of all results Against Gladbach with a negative outcome, against Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League with a positive one.

Nevertheless, it became clear that without their life insurance Erling Haaland, the Black and Yellows exude far less danger in the game with the ball. As the blond is currently not expected to be available on Saturday due to his thigh bruise, betting on an emphatic win for the home side between Dortmund and Augsburg should be viewed with caution.

Does the BVB offence find its top form again at home?

Nevertheless, there can be no doubt about the role of the Rose eleven as favourites, who in fourth place are already four points behind Bayern and therefore under pressure. After all, BVB have won seven Bundesliga games in a row for the first time since 2015/2016. In the three home games of the current season, Borussia also scored twelve goals and celebrated three victories with an average lead of two goals.

Exactly this handicap line (-1.5) can be profitably played again for the coming weekend

The personnel situation at the Champions League participants, who incidentally remained without a goal of their own for the first time in a year and 56 competitive matches against Gladbach, still looks anything but rosy, however. In addition to the probable absence of goal scorer Haaland, coach Rose must also do without Reyna, Morey, Zagadou, Coulibaly and Schmelzer. Mo Dahoud will also be absent due to his yellow card from the previous week. In his place, Julian Brandt could once again get his chance on the eight.

Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Kobel – Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro – Witsel – Bellingham, Brandt – Reus, Malen, T. Hazard

Last matches played by Dortmund:

Germany Augsburg – Statistics & current form

Actually, FC Augsburg thought they were on the right track after two good results at Union Berlin (0-0) and the win at home against Gladbach (1-0). The defence in particular was much improved compared to the start of the season and landed two clean sheets in a row. Then, however, the Fuggerstädter travelled to Breisgau and returned last Sunday with a sobering 0:3 defeat in their luggage.

The 15th-placed team in the current Bundesliga standings once again had major problems at both ends of the field in bringing their performance potential to the pitch. In the fourth of six league games, the southern Swabians failed to score a goal of their own. It is therefore not surprising that Weinzierl’s team has the least offensive output in the top flight with only two goals scored.

Augsburg and the disastrous record away

At least in this respect, improvement is possible on Saturday afternoon, because against BVB of all teams, Augsburg have presented themselves extremely accurate in the past. In the last 15 Bundesliga encounters between these teams, FCA have always scored at least once. The relegation candidates have not had such a long winning streak against any other club. Borussia, meanwhile, have not had a clean sheet against any other club for as long as they have against their upcoming opponents.

However, it is unlikely that this statistic will lead to a surprise coup for the visitors between Dortmund and Augsburg. Especially due to the fact that coach Markus Weinzierl’s team has now gone nine away games in the Bundesliga without a winand has lost seven games away from home during this period. This weekend, they face the threat of a tenth consecutive winless away game and thus the equalisation of the club’s own negative record from the 2011/12 season.

Compared to the previous week, Weinzierl, who is still considered one of the most promising candidates for the first coaching sacking in the Bundesliga, will certainly think twice about which personnel he trusts. Changes after the disappointing performance in Freiburg are absolutely conceivable. Finnbogason and Uduokhai are still missing due to injury. Iago is also still questionable after his shoulder injury. Four-man and three-man chains are both options the coach will explore.

Predicted line-up of Augsburg:
Gikiewicz – Gumny, Gouweleeuw, Oxford, Iago – Gruezo, Dorsch – Hahn, Caligiuri, Vargas – Niederlechner

Last matches played by Augsburg:

Dortmund – Augsburg Direct comparison / H2H-Balance

On Saturday afternoon, the clubs will face each other for the 21st time overall in the Bundesliga. With twelve wins, five draws and only three defeats, BVB clearly leads the direct comparison. Borussia has won three of the last four direct duels, always with a margin of victory of at least two goals.

Apart from that, it should be noted that FCA conceded more goals against no other Bundesliga team than against Lüdenscheid-Nord. Not least because of this, a prediction of another home win between Dortmund and Augsburg with a few goals in the course of the game is quite close.

Germany Dortmund – Augsburg Germany Tipp

With just a few days to go before the international break, Borussia from Dortmund have set their sights on claiming their fifth treble in their seventh league match. However, such a home win is also a must in order to keep their chances of winning the league alive. Especially after the defeat at Borussia Mönchengladbach the previous week (0:1).

From a purely statistical point of view, there are also many indications that the betting odds on a home win in the Dortmund vs Augsburg clash will go through. After all, BVB have celebrated seven home wins in a row, scored more goals on average against no other club in the Bundesliga than against FCA and also landed handicap victories in three of the past four duels.

In addition, the Fuggerstädtern are currently the most fancied guests in the top flight. FCA have not won nine away games in a row. Nevertheless, they have always managed to score at least one goal in the past 15 encounters with the black and yellow. In 2021/22, however, Weinzierl’s team always failed to score in three away games.

In order to follow the above facts, it makes sense to bet on a handicap win between Dortmund and Augsburg. For the favourite to win by two or more goals, a 1.60 can still be played at the top.