Burrow or Lawrence – Who is the true No. 1 pick?

No. 1 vs. No. 1: That’s what most headlines in the USA read before the Thursday Night Game, because with Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence, the two top picks of 2020 and 2021 meet each other directly for the first time.

There is a certain charm in watching this duel and observing the different styles of play. However, the one No. 1 pick (Trevor Lawrence) has yet to prove that he was truly worthy of that status. To date, his three NFL games have been rather disappointing.

But most of the experts are sure that his time will come and he will be able to get rid of the nervousness and slight mistakes quite quickly. Possibly already on Thursday, where it goes with Cincinnati against a team that was seen at least before the season on the same level.

In the meantime, the Bengals should have slight advantages here, but we don’t consider Lawrence’s first NFL win out of the question At the very least, though, it should be a fairly close game, which is why the odds are much more promising on Jacksonville for Bengals vs. Jags

Kickoff of the Night Game is, as always, at 02:20 on Friday night. It can be watched live on DAZN as a Thursday Night Game.

United States Cincinnati Bengals – Statistics & current form

The Bengals have started better than many experts had expected. Of course, that’s partly because Joe Burrow seems to be almost back to 100% after his horror injury in 2020. As does Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.

That’s amazing when we revisit the images from last year. Pretty much everything in his right knee was destroyed then. But Burrow is a fighter and maybe this experience will make him even stronger and more dangerous.

Burrow with great stats

Burrow’s passer rating of 105.4 points puts him in a strong 12th place league-wide, over 40 points ahead of his counterpart Lawrence. However, he has already made four interceptions, which is actually too many for three games.

The fact that they still managed to win two games is also thanks to their great defence. With only 18.0 points conceded per game so far, they represent a top 6 defence here Their upcoming opponent is allowing 30.3 points in comparison, a big advantage for Cincinnati

Bengals are considered the favourites.
However, we still don’t see them ahead by a double-digit handicap on Thursday. They haven’t been convincing enough offensively for that, despite all the good stats. 22.7 points per game is a value that should at best be enough for a narrow victory.

We can well imagine that, especially since Burrow already looks very experienced for his age – in contrast to Lawrence. Therefore, our forecast for Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville is also a win for the Bengals, which, however, should be closer than predicted by the bookmakers.

Key Players:
QB: Joe Burrow
 – RB: Joe Mixon
 – WR: Ja’Marr Chase
 – TE: Jonah Williams
 – K: Evan McPherson

United States Jacksonville Jaguars – Statistics & current form
Still waiting for No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence to get the first-ever NFL win of his career. Of the Jags’ upcoming seven opponents, the Bengals appear to be the easiest, so a win on Thursday would be huge, even for the young playmaker.

The pressure is not likely to get any less with every further defeat. It certainly suits them that they are now playing away in Cincinnati. Because there, opposite Burrow should be in the spotlight a little more, especially after the strong start to the season of the Bengals.

Lawrence needs to calm down

To get to that first win, however, Lawrence should want to force a little less. A good quarterback knows when to just throw the ball out of bounds. Lawrence doesn’t seem to be that far along yet, or at least he still overthrows too often.

Already seven interceptions are clearly too many – that results in an average of over two per game. So winning will be difficult and then there is also their stumbling defence, which was not considered so bad before the season.

With Malcom Brown or Shaquill Griffin, experienced players were brought in who should actually lead the many youngsters. But the coordination is still not right at all and 30.3 conceded points per game speak a clearly negative language

Now-first-right attitude expected

Nevertheless: we don’t see them as big underdogs for Thursday. After all, their two previous wins came as underdogs to the rival Bengals. Now they’re suddenly in the favourite role, which could also inhibit them – like so many teams so far this season.

Whether it will be enough for Lawrence’s first win in the end also depends on match luck, but we see the projected 7-8 point lead for Cincinnati as too much. In the case of the Bengals against the Jaguars, a bet on the Jags even with a handicap of +10 is still associated with good value and therefore also our recommendation.

Key Players:
QB: Trevor Lawrence
 – RB: James Robinson
 – WR: DJ Chark
 – WR: Dan Arnold
 – K: Josh Lambo

Cincinnati Bengals – Jacksonville Jaguars Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Since this is the first meeting between these two quarterbacks, the previous duels between these teams are somewhat negligible. In addition, both franchises have recently gone through upheaval, with numerous player changes each year.

The direct comparison is therefore not a great clue for betting, whereby this has also been quite even in recent years. Rather, this duel is likely to be decided on a psychological level. Which young quarterback will make fewer mistakes?

This is one of the points that should decide victory and defeat. Since we expect Lawrence to slowly put away his mistakes, we don’t see a house-high favourite in this matchup. If we can still get a value of over 1.70 for betting on the Jaguars +10, we should take advantage of it.

United States Cincinnati Bengals – Jacksonville Jaguars United States Tip

Although we will see the two No. 1 picks of recent years on the field, we don’t expect a high-scoring game, but rather a mistake-filled one. That should also drive up the overall score. A pick six, for example, is not unlikely for this matchup.

However, the bet we recommend on Cincinnati vs Jacksonville is a pick on the Jags +10 The bookmakers are probably still under the impression of the surprise win of the Bengals against the Steelers. However, it is doubtful that they will win a second game in a row by more than ten points.

Alternatively, a bet on over 46.0 points is also possible Both quarterbacks have already thrown numerous interceptions, which are normally turned into opponent points very quickly. Thus we see the 46.0 points set for Thursday as too low