Can Bournemouth pull off the upset?
On Sunday, the quarter-finals of the FA Cup will see AFC Bournemouth take on Manchester City. At first glance, it seems that the winner has already been decided, because while the home side have tended to be found in the lower half of the Premier League table in recent years, the Citizens have dominated the English top flight almost at will. However, this is not reflected in the Bournemouth v Manchester City odds. We are currently offered maximum odds of 2.35 for a win by the supposed favorites.
We want to find out the reasons for this in our Bournemouth vs. Manchester City prediction and start with the home and away record of the two teams. This is where we find the first reason for the odds distribution, because the Citizens have not been able to convince away from home so far. In 22 matches across all competitions, Pep Guardiola’s team have only managed eight wins, meaning they have not won in 64% of away games. However, it remains to be seen whether the AFC can take advantage of their away weakness, as seven wins in 16 home games are not exactly intimidating.
In the comparison of form, the two teams are also evenly matched, because while the home side have won five of the last ten competitive games, the visitors have won four games. However, it should be noted that the Citizens had a much more difficult program and faced teams like Real Madrid, Liverpool and Arsenal.
Bournemouth – Statistics & current form
Bournemouth is having an almost breathtaking season, picking up 44 points from their first 29 PL games. This puts Andoni Iraola’s team in tenth place in the English top flight and thus safely in the middle of the pack. But it gets even better, because the gap to the international places is only four points. So it is not out of the question that the AFC will still make it into the Conference League. Or perhaps the team will make it into Europe through the FA Cup, where the Cherries are already in the quarter-finals. However, they face Manchester City there, which is their toughest opponent in the remaining competition.
Bournemouth can cause problems…
With 56 goals in 33 games (Ø 1.70) across all competitions, Andoni Iraola’s team is well capable of giving the Citizens a hard time. Moreover, the Cherries have only kept a clean sheet seven times this season, meaning they have found the back of the net in 79% of competitive matches. At home, however, the rate is slightly lower at “only” 75%. One player in particular stands out in the AFC’s offense, and that is Justin Kluivert. The son of legend Patrick Kluivert has already collected 20 scorer points this season and is therefore having the best season of his career.
Bournemouth is also solid defensively
Defensively, Andoni Iraola’s team has done equally well so far, with only 39 goals conceded in 33 games (Ø 1.18), putting the home side just above the magical 1.0 mark. Nevertheless, the Cherries have kept a clean sheet only seven times, thus conceding at least one goal in 79% of competitive matches. At home, however, the rate is slightly better at just 69%. Nevertheless, a clean sheet against Manchester City, which has one of the best offenses in the world, is not to be expected. The necessary quality is simply missing for that.
Lineup:
Arrizabalaga – Cook, Zabarnyi, Huijsen, Kerkez – Christie, Adams, Tavernier, Kluivert, Semenyo – Evanilson
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
Manchester City are having a shockingly weak season, picking up only 48 points from their first 29 league games. This means that Pep Guardiola’s team are only in fifth place in the Premier League and are clearly falling short of their own expectations. What’s more, the Citizens are already 22 points behind Liverpool and thus the top of the table. In addition, the guests have already been eliminated from the EFL Cup and the Champions League. As things stand, the star ensemble would not even qualify for the premier class, but only for the Europa League. The FA Cup thus remains the only chance for another title (Community Shield).
Manchester City is unstoppable
With 93 goals in 45 competitive games (Ø 2.07), the Skyblues’ offense is doing a fantastic job. In addition, Pep Guardiola’s team has only gone six games without scoring a goal, putting the ball in the net in 87% of games. It doesn’t matter whether the Citizens are at home (87%) or away (86%). Nevertheless, the away team’s game is a bit too one-dimensional, because apart from Erling Braut Haaland (33 scorer), most of the other offensive players like De Bruyne, Foden or Bernardo Silva are falling short of their own expectations.
Manchester City is unusually vulnerable
The lack of stability is clearly the reason why the Citizens are underperforming this season. With 66 goals conceded in 45 games (Ø 1.47), the reigning English champions have simply conceded too many goals and thus repeatedly put themselves in trouble. For this reason, Pep Guardiola’s team only kept a clean sheet eleven times, thus allowing at least one goal in 76% of competitive matches. This often forces the away team to score no fewer than two goals to get a win.
Lineup:
Ortega – Lewis, Khusanov, Dias, Gvardiol – Gündogan, Gonzalez, Savinho, Marmoush, Doku – Haaland
Bournemouth – Manchester City Head to head / H2H record
In terms of team analysis alone, apart from the individual quality and the difference in squad value, no favorite can be identified. However, the H2H comparison changes this, as the Cherries have only won one of the 20 duels against the Citizens and lost a whopping 18. In the last encounter, however, the AFC managed to get their first and so far only win. This is probably why the Bournemouth v Manchester City betting odds are quite even despite the head-to-head.
Bournemouth – Manchester City betting tip
In summary of all the facts mentioned, we have decided on “both teams to score – yes” in conjunction with under 5.5 goals for the Bournemouth vs. Manchester City betting tip. The reasons for this are obvious, because although the Citizens have one of the best attacks in the world, they concede far too many goals. Furthermore, Pep Guardiola’s team is not particularly strong away from home, so the supposed underdog should also get one or two good scoring opportunities. In addition, both teams have scored in three of the last four duels, so this tip definitely has value.
Alternatively, we recommend the Bournemouth vs. Manchester City odds for over 2.5 goals in the game. The reasons for this match-up match the reasons for our main bet and therefore hardly need further explanation. However, we expect the away team to advance due to the qualitative differences and expect a close result – we consider a 1-2 to be extremely realistic.
