Can Leicester collect important points in the relegation battle?

On Thursday, it comes in the highest English game class to the clash between West Ham United and Leicester City. In terms of the table, we are in the bottom quarter of the Premier League in this duel and thus in the relegation battle. However, appearances are somewhat deceptive, because the Hammers have 13 points more on their account and in practice have nothing to do with relegation. For this reason, the West Ham vs. Leicester odds also speak quite clearly in favor of a home win.

To what extent the West Ham vs. Leicester tip for a home team win is actually worthwhile, we now want to assess with the help of our analysis. We start with the home and away record of the two teams and find that a home win is not as likely as the betting odds suggest. The Hammers won only four of 13 home games and thus remained winless in 69% of the matches. On the other hand, the Foxes have only won two away games so far, so an away win is not an obvious prospect either.

The comparison of form seems to play a more important role in this duel, because after the 1-0 win against Arsenal, the Hammers should have gained a lot of self-confidence and therefore go into the upcoming game in a positive frame of mind. The same cannot be said for the guests, because with eleven defeats in the last 13 competitive games, their form is clearly going downhill. At second glance, the West Ham vs. Leicester tip for a home win suggests itself after all.

West Ham – statistics & current form

West Ham are having a surprisingly weak season and only managed to get 30 points out of their first 26 games. This means that Graham Potter’s team are currently only in 16th place and are lagging well behind their own expectations. By comparison, the Hammers finished the previous season in ninth place and thus in the upper midfield. Despite the situation in the table, the hosts will have nothing to do with relegation, because the 13-point lead should be absolutely sufficient for the remaining twelve league games. But this year won’t be much more than that.

West Ham lack goal-scoring danger

With only 30 goals in 26 league games (Ø 1.15), the Hammers have one of the weakest attacks in the Premier League. In fact, only four teams – Southampton, Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Everton – have scored even fewer goals. Nevertheless, Graham Potter’s team have only gone six times without scoring a goal, finding the back of the net in 77% of their matches. At home, however, their record is significantly worse, at just 62%. The main problem, though, is a different one: the home side have only scored more than one goal seven times. As a result, their results are heavily dependent on their defensive performance.

West Ham often too vulnerable

The problems do not stop at the offense, but continue on the defensive side. With 47 goals conceded in 26 league games (Ø 1.81), the back line rarely provides relief. In addition, Graham Potter’s team have kept a clean sheet just five times, conceding at least one goal in 81% of PL games. At London Stadium, the rate is even worse at 92%. It is therefore no surprise that the Hammers have picked up more points away than at home.

Leicester – statistics & current form

Leicester City were already one of the candidates for relegation before the season as promoted teams. After 26 games, this seems to have been confirmed, because with only 17 points, the Foxes are only ranked 19th. In addition, Ruud Van Nistelrooy’s team is already five points behind the safety line and is therefore in serious danger of relegation. Furthermore, the bottom four teams are cut off from the rest of the table, so the probability of relegation is theoretically 75%. However, theory and practice differ greatly in football, so a small run could change a lot in a very short time. A win against the Hammers would be almost essential for that.

Leicester lacks offensive power

With only 25 goals in 26 PL games (Ø 0.96), the guests have one of the weakest offenses in the English top flight. In fact, only two teams, Southampton and Ipswich Town, have scored even less. It is therefore no surprise that Ruud Van Nistelrooy’s team have gone nine games without scoring and have only managed to score in just 65% of league games. However, the rate is slightly better away from home, at 75%. A goal against the Hammers’ previously vulnerable defense is not out of the question.

Leicester with weak defense

However, it is not only offensively that things are going very badly, but also defensively. With 59 goals conceded in 26 league games (Ø 2.27), the Foxes even have one of the weakest defenses in the Premier League, allowing only a few more goals than Southampton FC. In addition, Ruud Van Nistelrooy’s team has kept a clean sheet only once, conceding at least one goal in 96% of the games. Away from home, the rate is even 100% and could not be worse. Before the game against West Ham United, a “clean sheet” seems therefore to be absolutely unlikely.

West Ham – Leicester Direct comparison / H2H record

Based on the facts mentioned so far, no clear favorite can be identified. The H2H comparison doesn’t really change that either, because while the Hammers have won 55 duels, the Foxes have already won 53 games. In the recent past, the guests have even been slightly more successful, winning the last three meetings. For this reason, we cannot quite understand the bookmakers’ West Ham v Leicester betting odds and would have expected a more even spread of odds.

West Ham – Leicester Tip

In summary of all the facts mentioned, we have decided on “both teams to score – yes” for the West Ham vs. Leicester betting tip. One of the main reasons for this is the fact that the Foxes have not yet been able to play a clean sheet away from home. On the other hand, the promoted team has always scored a goal in the last six duels against the Hammers and has also won the last three encounters. So the supposed favorite is far from having won this game.

Match Facts – West Ham vs Leicester Tip

• West Ham were able to defeat Arsenal last weekend
• Leicester City have won the last three duels against the Hammers
• In five of the last six duels, both teams were able to score

Alternatively, you can also add the West Ham v Leicester over 2.5 goals price to your betting slip. When these two teams meet, goals are almost certain. In the last ten duels, the recommended line was exceeded nine times. On average, 3.8 goals were scored per game during this period.