Does Munich’s Super Cup frustration unload on the Weser?
The 61st staging of the Bundesliga will open on Friday evening with the game that has taken place the most times in history. This is the 113th time the two sides have faced each other in the Bundesliga, with Bayern having not lost any of their last 31 competitive games against the Weser side. Most recently, the Reds have won 14 away games in a row at the Weser Stadium, which is why betting on the reigning champions to win their opener at Werder Bremen against Bayern is very much under a lucky star.
Overall, you have to go far back in Bundesliga history to find an opening defeat for a defending champion. In none of the last 21 seasons did the champions stumble on the first matchday of the following season. The last time Bayern lost 0:1 to Gladbach was in 2001. This also favours the prediction of a successful start for the team from the Isar in Werder Bremen against Bayern.
Factually, the weakest home team of the 2022/23 season (Bremen picked up only 17 home points) and the best away team (Bayern secured 33 of 51 points away from home) will face each other. Moreover, SVW have won only one of their last twelve league games (three draws, eight defeats) and now face an opponent who is definitely angry after the 3-0 defeat in the Super Cup against RB Leipzig.
Accordingly, it could be a high-scoring affair on the debut of Munich’s king transfer Harry Kane on Friday evening. The greatest value is provided by the odds for more than 3.5 goals at the Weser Stadium.
Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form
SV Werder Bremen were promoted to the top flight in the 2022/23 season and finished 13th in the final table, three points clear of the relegation places. However, the Weser were not really satisfied with the way in which they managed to stay in the league.
After all, it would have been a lot more if the North Germans hadn’t fallen apart in the second half of the season. SVW scored just 15 points in the entire second half of the Bundesliga season. No other Bundesliga team scored worse during this period.
Won only one of the last twelve Bundesliga games
Lately, the Weserelf won only one of the last twelve Bundesliga games (three draws, eight defeats) and said goodbye to the summer break in less than exhilarating shape. The only bright spot: Niclas Füllkrug, who with 16 goals became the fifth Bremen player to secure the goalscoring crown.
The fact that Bayern come to the Weser Stadium on Friday evening with Harry Kane as their new number nine favours our bet on a high-scoring game at Werder Bremen against Bayern. It’s still good news for Werder though, as their pursuit of the English superstar meant that any rumours that the Reds might be interested in Niclas Füllkrug were not followed up on.
Winless in eight Bundesliga openers
While Bremen also landed a surprise transfer coup by signing Liverpool’s Naby Keita on a free transfer. However, the 28-year-old will miss the opening game against Munich due to an adductor injury.
So it will largely come down to the team that was so out of form in the final stages of the 2022/23 season. It seems unlikely that SVW, who have lost all of their last 14 home games against FC Bayern, will start the season with a treble against the defending champions for the first time in eight consecutive Bundesliga openers without a win (three draws, five defeats).
Predicted line-up of Werder Bremen:
Werder Bremen (Expected line-up) 3-5-2
Bayern – statistics & current form
With a lot of luck and thanks to a Dortmund slip-up against Mainz, FC Bayern München actually secured the championship at the end of an almost completely messed-up season this summer. The 71 points corresponded to the weakest yield in twelve years and the lowest number of points with which a team in Germany became champion since 2010.
Nevertheless, those in charge have learned their lessons and realised that a top player is needed up front. After a long courtship, the German record champions were prepared to put 100 million euros on the table for England’s superstar Harry Kane.
The first competitive match brought a 0:3 defeat
The 30-year-old Briton is expected to be in the starting eleven for the first time as early as Friday and should help the Munich side straight away. With Min-jae Kim, who played a significant role in SSC Napoli’s championship, and the transfer-free players Raphael Guerreiro and Konrad Laimer, the Munich team also made further acquisitions on the transfer market.
Thomas Tuchel’s team is now stronger than ever, but the new season started with a bitter setback. The Bavarians were beaten 3-0 by reigning cup winners RB Leipzig in the Super Cup.
Unbeaten in 31 competitive games against Werder Bremen
In Germany, the Super Cup is often reduced to an improved training game. Nevertheless, the pressure to not only win the opening match but also to make a statement is enormous. Accordingly, the odds are low for a win for Werder Bremen against Bayern, who have not lost to the SVW in 31 games (27 wins, four draws).
The team from the Isar will be looking to build on the away strength of the 2022/23 season, which ultimately led to them lifting the league trophy for the 33rd time in the club’s history. With 33 out of a possible 51 points on away grounds, the FCB was the best away team in the Bundesliga.
Predicted Bayern line-up:
Bayern Munich (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1
Werder Bremen – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 29 – 26 – 71
There have been a total of 126 meetings between the two sides, with this being the most played match in Bundesliga history with 112 duels. With a total of 71 victories, FC Bayern is the clear leader in the direct comparison. Currently, the Reds are unbeaten in 31 consecutive competitive matches against SV Werder Bremen (27 wins, four draws).
Werder Bremen – Bayern Tip
The betting odds on Werder Bremen against Bayern are clearly in favour of the defending champions, who have won all of their last 14 away games at the Weser Stadium. The Reds will also arrive with a lot of anger after the 3-0 defeat in the Super Cup against RB Leipzig and are eager to make amends. With goal-scoring star Harry Kane on board, that anger could now be unleashed on Werder, who have won just one of their last 12 league games (three draws, eight defeats).
Also considering that SVW were no children of sadness last season, scoring 51 goals compared to conceding 64, and were the source of many a goal festival, it makes a lot of sense to predict a high-scoring match in the opener between Werder Bremen and Bayern.
