Will Chelsea clutch at the last straw?
In a rematch of the 2021 Champions League final, Manchester City and Chelsea face off on Saturday lunchtime in an early 1:30pm kick-off. According to the odds, the Citizens, who famously lost out in the aforementioned final for the trophy in the summer of last year, will come out on top this time around.
If they lose, the gap between them and the leaders would grow to 13 points. It seems virtually impossible that Guardiola’s consistent team would squander this cushion on the Blues, who have been a little weaker of late. More pressure therefore rests on the shoulders of coach Thomas Tuchel’s team.
But that doesn’t change the fact that the Sky Blues have won their last 11 league games and the first leg went their way thanks to a 1-0 win. For the first time since 2017/18, and for only the fourth time ever in their combined PL history, Manchester City and Chelsea could therefore see their predictions of a City treble in both the first and second legs of a season pay off.
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
Manchester City are the measure of all things in England at the moment. 17 of 21 games in the Premier League could win the charges of coach Pep Guardiola. No other team has scored more goals than the Champions League finalists (53) and conceded fewer (13). Dominance is the key word when it comes to succinctly describing the season so far of the undisputed leaders.
And because the Citizens have won all of their last eleven Premier League games and their last defeat in the English top flight dates back to October 2021, the betting on a home win in the top match of matchday 22 between Manchester City and Chelsea on Saturday lunchtime seems obvious at first glance. But: on three occasions a home game has ended one of a historic five 11+ game winning streaks, most recently in 2021 in a 2-0 defeat to city rivals Manchester United.
No clean sheet for the Citizens again?
Although Guardiola’s side, as mentioned, have the best defence in the league, we don’t think it’s out of the question that keeper Ederson will be called upon to make at least one save this weekend, especially as four of the only six goals conceded at home have come in the last four meetings at the Etihad Stadium. At the same time, in six of the nine league games played at home, a bet on the over 2.5 would have gone through.
It should also be remembered that Man City have only managed to draw nil against the Blues in one of their last six head-to-head meetings in the Premier League or Champions League. The Londoners know the Catalan coach’s dominant possession football inside out and are one of the few opponents on this continent who can cause the industry leader problems thanks to their fearsome switching game.
In terms of personnel, there are also some question marks for the league leaders, as it is still not known for certain which players were affected by the virus outbreak before last weekend’s FA Cup match against Swindon, in which the Sky Blues also conceded a goal (4:1). Riyad Mahrez, who is away at the Africa Cup, will definitely not be available. All the more offensive hopes rest on Kevin de Bruyne, who has been involved in four goals in the last four games against his former employers Chelsea.
Predicted Manchester City line-up:
Ederson; Walker, Dias, Laporte, Cancelo; Gündogan, Rodri, De Bruyne; Silva, Jesus, Foden
Last matches played by Manchester City:
FA Cup
01/07 2022 – Swindon 1 – 4 Manchester City
Premier League
01/01 2022 – Arsenal London 1 – 2 Manchester City
12/29 2021 – Brentford 0 – 1 Manchester City
12/26 2021 – Manchester City 6 – 3 Leicester
12/19 2021 – Newcastle United 0 – 4 Manchester City
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
For only the second time in the history of this pairing, it is a clash between the first and second in the standings. Although the Blues are currently benefiting from the fact that their rivals Liverpool have one game less on their books, the Tuchel team has of course absolutely deserved this top-of-the-table match. If they want to keep dreaming of the championship title, a win at the Etihad Stadium is virtually mandatory.
The capital club’s strong away record this season is one of the reasons to hope for a positive result on Saturday afternoon. Seven of the ten matches away from home have been won, in addition to two draws and only one defeat. The goal difference of 20:6 also underlines the impressive strength in opposing stadiums.
Chelsea’s offence has only gone without a goal twice this PL season
While the Blues’ defence was still the absolute showpiece of the team last season and also at the beginning of the current season, the balance of their own game has shifted somewhat recently. Looking back at the past nine Premier League matches, the Champions League winners have only managed a single clean sheet. In no less than eight of these nine matches, the bet on “both teams to score” would have gone through. For Saturday’s match between Manchester City and Chelsea, too, the odds on both sides scoring are well worth considering.
This is also supported by the slowly returning form, which was demonstrated during the week in the 1-0 win over Tottenham in the League Cup semi-final. In the last Premier League match against Liverpool, Tuchel’s team made a very good impression after an early 2-0 deficit, equalised to 2-2 and had several chances to wrap up the treble in the further course of the game, but failed to do so.
With the exception of the aforementioned 0-0 draw against Wolves and the 1-0 home defeat against City in the first leg, Lukaku and Co. have scored at least once in every league match so far. We are convinced that this will also be the case on Saturday. Apart from Chilwell, James, Chalobah and regular keeper Mendy, who is at the Africa Cup, all men are on board.
Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Kepa; Christensen, Silva, Rüdiger; Azpilicueta, Jorginho, Kovacic, Alonso; Mount, Havertz; Lukaku
Last matches played by Chelsea:
Carabao Cup
01/12 2022 – Tottenham 0 – 1 Chelsea London
FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Chelsea London 5 – 1 Chesterfield
Carabao Cup
01/05 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 0 Tottenham
Premier League
01/02 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 2 Liverpool FC
12/29 2021 – Chelsea London 1 – 1 Brighton
Manchester City – Chelsea bet
Manchester City host Chelsea. Judging by the betting odds, the clear favourites are the home side, who have now won their last eleven league games and are running a lonely course at the top of the table.
If the visitors from the capital want to get back into the Sky Blues’ comfort zone, they need a win in the direct duel. Such a scenario is by no means out of the question, after all, the Tuchel team defeated the Citizens in the 2021 Champions League final, among other things. In addition, the Blues have been in very good form away from home this season.
Our first tendency, however, goes in a different direction. We believe that both teams will score goals, based on the fact that both teams – despite very good defensive statistics on balance – have been a little bit off their game against the ball lately. City have conceded at least one goal in three of their last four competitive matches, while Tuchel’s side have conceded just once in their last nine Premier League games.
